Russia's Artful Exit from Syria [View all]

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Vladimir Putin’s surprise announcement that he is withdrawing the majority of Russian troops stationed in Syria will lead to much speculation over his true motives for doing so. Has the Russian military, as his announcement claimed, actually achieved its strategic goals? Certainly Russian airstrikes and material aid helped stabilize the Assad regime and leave it on the verge of dealing a decisive blow to rebel groups in the city of Aleppo. And yet, there is a number of alternate explanations for Putin’s decision to withdraw. The costs of the intervention have been high, domestic unrest is growing over falling energy prices and other international issues demand Putin’s attention, such as ongoing sanctions over Russian involvement in Ukraine.

Questioning Putin’s motives for pulling out Russian troops, however, obscures a more interesting point about Russia’s strategic pivot away from the Middle East. How can Russia artfully remove itself the conflict in contrast with recent U.S. interventions in the Middle East, such as in Iraq, where withdrawal ultimately proved impossible? A number of factors enabled Putin to intervene in Syria with impunity, and likewise to unilaterally end Russian involvement.

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Since the ability to disengage militarily from conflicts like Syria rests at least partially on the authoritarian nature of the intervening government, the United States will be unable to pull off a similar move without abandoning its liberal ideals. The Russian experience in Syria, therefore, demonstrates once again that a primary strategic goal of the United States should be to avoid such military interventions in the first place, since its liberal character precludes it from a quick and easy exit. Furthermore, there is still ample time for Putin’s withdrawal from Syria to prove more difficult than currently assumed, turning his supposed “victory” into a clearer form of defeat.

The Russian intervention certainly demonstrated its long-distance power-projection capabilities, but the marginal gains in prestige involved are easily outweighed by the manifest costs in equipment, manpower and other expenses, and by the potential for future international legal action. As the United States knows far too well, it is one thing to declare victory, but an entirely different thing to actually and fully achieve it.

Alexander Kirss is a Resident Junior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-artful-exit-syria-15605?page=1