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Foreign Affairs

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TexasTowelie

(125,019 posts)
Mon Dec 15, 2025, 04:40 AM Monday

Russia Is Collapsing Fast - Jason Jay Smart [View all]



Russia just lost its $246 billion survival fund, and the consequences are catastrophic. This analysis reveals why the immobilization of sovereign assets in Europe is not just a frozen bank account—it is the mathematical end of Putin’s ability to fund a "forever war." We explain why the Kremlin is now forced to cannibalize its own civilian economy to survive, and why a peace deal in Ukraine can no longer save the Russian state from financial collapse.

With this primary liquidity buffer gone, Moscow has lost its defense against economic shock. We detail the "Liquidity Trap" that ties the 35% crash in oil revenue directly to the sudden spike in domestic inflation. The Kremlin is now vulnerable to a fiscal crisis because it lacks the reserves to stabilize the ruble or fund emergency procurement.

Beyond the financial ruin, we map the physical breakdown of Russia’s logistics. Recent strikes on the Saratov refinery and critical chemical plants have severed key supply chains, creating a compounding failure loop. Vladimir Putin has locked his nation into a permanent global conflict psychology, guaranteeing that the war will destroy the economy from the inside out.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 – Russia’s Emergency Cash Is Frozen
01:05 – Energy Revenues Collapse
02:00 – Crimea Under Growing Pressure
02:55 – Domestic Squeeze Begins
03:50 – Financial Stress Turns Political
04:45 – War Logistics Start to Break
05:45 – Deep Drone Strikes Change the War
06:45 – Putin’s Strategic Blind Spot
07:35 – Ukraine Targets Industrial Chokepoints
08:35 – Credit Stress and Public Anger
09:25 – Europe’s Financial Lock Holds
10:05 – Hybrid War and the Coming Elite Break
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