Turkish minister's Kirkuk visit infuriates Iraq

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15. Very little to add.

Last edited Sat Aug 4, 2012, 09:12 AM - Edit history (1)

Fozzle is talking about much the same thing as we two, near as I can see.

Mr Assad is rolling the dice, throwing a giant monkey wrench into the current arrangements, doing what he can to harm his enemies. A few years back IIRC he suppressed a Kurdish insurrection in the NorthEast. Now he is letting them go. Prediction is a mugs game.

One may infer that he (Assad & Co.) has given up on restoration of the status quo ante as a goal. Right now he doesn't seem to have anywhere to go either.

I expect Syria to now fragment or go federal like Iraq, in the midst of a civil war, what happens to the pieces, who knows?

It is significant now, I think, that the Kurds will have money (from oil), and allies. Puts the US and Israel in an awkward situation (having to pick a side in Kurd/Turk dispute). Puts Turkey in an awkward situation. Puts Iraq in an awkward situation (dispute over who gets the oil money, issues of central authority). So we have exacerbated all the usual disagreements plus serious heating up of the Kurdish/Turkish dispute, which had been in abeyance.

Edit: I will add that Mr Assad shows an unerring eye for the keystone of the situation, the place to throw the biggest monkey wrench. I am impressed with the sang froid. But then he would know.

Edit2: and don't forget Iran.