Brutal Truths: Retreat in Ramadi should trigger a review of coalition's ISIL strategy

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16. The War Nerd: Doing the math on Alawite casualty numbers

The Sunday Telegraph said recently that Assad’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) will collapse soon, because one-third of Syrian Alawite “males of military age” have already died fighting the Sunni. Lack of manpower, the theory goes, will doom the Alawites.

There’s no denying that Assad’s forces have been looking weak lately. Islamic State has been making gains against them in the southeast, taking the only road connecting southern Syria with Iraq. Worse yet, in the minds of artsy Western news-chewers, is the fact that IS has now taken the ancient ruins of Palmyra, raising the terrible specter of bearded hicks taking sledgehammers to “cultural treasures” like they did in the museums of Mosul.

I have to confess, the prospect of Palmyra’s pillars falling down grieves me less than the thought of a brave, smart Kurdish soldier losing her life to the slave-selling pigs of IS. Art, schmart; you can rebuild a fallen temple a lot easier than you can bring back the YPG/J kids whose faces show up on the weekly death notices.

http://pando.com/2015/05/23/the-war-nerd-doing-the-math-on-alawite-casualty-numbers/