Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

William Seger

(10,929 posts)
162. 'Round the barn again
Sat Apr 27, 2013, 05:53 PM
Apr 2013

> What an appropriately lawyer-esque position to take - "if the SBT isn't correct, however, then it should be possible to disprove it" - as it inverts common legal and scientific principles by insisting that the hypothesis must be proven incorrect, rather than the hypothesis should be proven

Uh... no, that's exactly backwards, like most of your logic. In science, theories are never considered to be "proved," but they can be disproved. A properly constructed hypothesis must be falsifiable, and a properly designed scientific experiment must have the potential to falsify a prediction of the hypothesis, or it's a worthless experiment. If it does not falsify the hypothesis (and the results can be replicated), then the results are said to "support" the hypothesis in the inductive sense, not to "prove" it in the deductive sense, because that isn't logically possible. However, if replicated results do not match the predictions of the hypothesis, then it's considered to be disproved and can be discarded. It's revealing that a conspiracist doesn't understand this principle; it may be a defining characteristic.

Neither the SBT nor any competing theory can be "proved." However, they can be disproved by the evidence. For example, the hypothesis that the shot that hit JFK's back was at an upward trajectory is disproved by the autopsy photos we've already discussed.



On the other hand, the clear downward trajectory of the bullet path and the relative positions of JFK and Connally -- i.e. the trajectory points straight at Connally's back -- means that this evidence "supports" the SBT.

> JFK and Connally were hit by separate bullets (as seen in Zapruder films supported by eyewitness accounts);

It's just a lie to claim that the hits can be "seen" in the Zapruder films, and guesses are not facts. Neither are individual perceptions during those chaotic seconds. Connally thought he was hit by a second shot, but that was based simply on an assumption that the first shot hit JFK. And actually, perhaps it did: This entire line of argument tries to imply that if there really were two separate shots, then there must have been a second shooter. But that invalid logic is based on the dubious assumption that what conspiracists' think they "see" in the Zapruder film -- hits about a second apart -- is correct. If instead the hits were really 3 or 4 seconds apart (as the "ear-witnesses" said!), then both shots could have both been fired by Oswald. As the WC report said, the SBT is not really necessary for their conclusions.

> the wound in Kennedy's back is too low;

No, it isn't, as seen in the photo above, which trumps the drawings and ambiguous verbal descriptions.

> the trajectory doesn't work;

Abject bullshit. It's been repeatedly demonstrated that the trajectory is completely consistent with a single bullet fired from where a shooter was observed firing at the limo.

> Kennedy's wound was never tracked;

Nonsense. There's an entry wound on the back, a nick on the C6 vertebra, and an exit wound on the throat. I'd call that a pretty clear track. What you're trying to say is that the back wound was only probed to a short distance, and the reason for that is stated in the autopsy report -- the muscle had tightened around the wound -- and since the X-rays showed no bullet, there was no need to probe the wound any deeper.

> the damage to Kennedy is not consistent with a passing high-velocity bullet;

That hardly makes enough sense to comment on except to say that it's another hand-waving assertion or abject nonsense, or both. I'd say a hole all the way through his body is pretty consistent with a passing high-velocity bullet.

> a bullet or large fragment was retrieved in Connally's hospital room long after CE399 found;

Sez you, but there is absolutely no evidence of it. On the other hand, the X-ray shows what was in his leg -- a tiny fragment -- and the doctor who attended to that wound made no mention of your imaginary bullet. Thus, the evidence we actually have supports the SBT, whereas there is no real evidence of another bullet.

> FBI receives CE399 before it was actually handed over;

does that mean? Before your imaginary bullet was "handed over?" Actually, this line of "reasoning" simply illustrates how implausible it is that CE399 was planted, when the alleged planter couldn't have possibly known that an "extra" bullet wasn't going to turn up in Connally's body and reveal the hoax. Actually, "implausible" is an understatement.

> ballistics tests show bullet would have been visibly deformed after striking Connally's wrist;

But you blithely declare that the tests the DO show similar deformation were "not properly conducted." Again, for the benefit of anyone who missed it: The Lattimer tests showed that if the bullet had been slowed down first and hit sideways, then it could break the wrist bone and come out looking like CE399. Your repeated hand-waving assertions that that's not what happened are completely baseless as well as being illogical: A slowed-down, tumbling bullet is exactly what would be expected. If the purpose of the experiment was to test the SBT -- e.g. what might happen to a bullet that had already passed through JFK's neck and Connally's torso -- then it's the experiments where a bone was directly hit with a bullet at full speed that was "not properly conducted." In view of the experimental evidence, the minimal damage to CE399, therefore, actually supports the SBT.

> Parkland doctors say throat wound was of entry.

And as they themselves said, they supposed that based strictly on the small size of the wound, which is easily explained by the fact that the bullet exited right at a buttoned shirt collar and tied necktie. Those doctors were apparently not even aware of the back wound, which is clearly an entry wound, and the "theory" that both are entry wounds caused by disappearing bullets is... um, highly implausible.

> The above is just off the top of my head.

Exactly the problem.

> Any hypothesis which starts from a position as challenged and unlikely (if not impossible) as the SBT, is an extreme fringe concept.

That's a bold statement from who has just demonstrated the factual distortions and logical contortions necessary to cast any doubt on it, and then you completely dodge the real issue, which is that you have utterly failed to offer a better theory that actually conforms to the evidence we actually have.

> Why persons like "wm Seger" feel it necessary, almost 50 years after the fact, to not only argue an extreme fringe concept, but to do so arrogantly and aggressively, all the while inverting basic legal and scientific concepts by insisting that the flawed hypothesis must be proven wrong or that the burden of proof requires a competing hypothesis - why they insist on doing this one can only guess.

You're just not paying attention: It's because after 50 years, the SBT is still the theory that best fits the evidence -- perfectly in accordance with "legal concepts" -- and I'm not swayed by hand-waving assertions, imaginary evidence, fuzzy thinking, or your upside-down notion of scientific concepts.

Thanks for posting, I watched the first 9 videos from the links in your earlier posts. eomer Feb 2013 #1
I sort of see it, too... MrMickeysMom Feb 2013 #4
Introduction: Woman heard shot from grassy knoll William Seger Feb 2013 #2
Snark? MrMickeysMom Feb 2013 #3
"That's all I get from you is snark?" William Seger Feb 2013 #5
No, I read it... MrMickeysMom Feb 2013 #6
Uh-huh, "answers" and "honest discussion" and "dialog" William Seger Feb 2013 #11
Episode Two: John Armstrong speculates there were "two Oswalds" William Seger Feb 2013 #12
Episode Three: Bill Simpich speculates that Oswald was part of "false defector" program William Seger Feb 2013 #13
Episode Four: Joan Mellen speculates that Oswald was a CIA/FBI plant William Seger Feb 2013 #15
Episode Five: John Armstrong again, speculating about "two Oswalds" again William Seger Feb 2013 #16
No response from the OP yet? zappaman Mar 2013 #18
On posting the videos as they come out each week, and on your being blocked for it... eomer Feb 2013 #7
Appreciated, eomer... MrMickeysMom Feb 2013 #8
I followed the discussion and I thank you for having, by far, the more reasonable approach. NYC_SKP Feb 2013 #14
Thanks for posting and sorry for any grief you got from others. NYC_SKP Feb 2013 #9
Twas nothing... MrMickeysMom Feb 2013 #10
Will the OP be answering Seger's criticisms of the videos any time soon? zappaman Mar 2013 #17
It would appear that the poll speaks for who's more interested in the videos... MrMickeysMom Mar 2013 #19
So the answer is NO zappaman Mar 2013 #20
The answer is... MrMickeysMom Mar 2013 #21
!!! zappaman Mar 2013 #22
... MrMickeysMom Mar 2013 #23
I'm sorry you can't speak for yourself. zappaman Mar 2013 #24
They sure are... MrMickeysMom Mar 2013 #25
Seger's criticisms arguille Mar 2013 #26
I a interested in the way you addressed "c" MrMickeysMom Mar 2013 #27
One at a time: a) eyewitness reports of shot(s) from grassy knoll area William Seger Mar 2013 #28
reply to #28 arguille Mar 2013 #33
"Sorry. That does not add up." William Seger Mar 2013 #38
reply to #38 arguille Mar 2013 #43
Neither you nor Fiester have refuted what I'm saying about Zapruder William Seger Mar 2013 #46
BTW, here's a "painted over" Zapruder frame William Seger Mar 2013 #51
reply to #51 arguille Mar 2013 #52
Baloney. I DID respond to your three issues. William Seger Mar 2013 #58
reply to #58 arguille Mar 2013 #60
Timeout William Seger Mar 2013 #64
A vacation is what you needed at this point, Billy MrMickeysMom Mar 2013 #66
I'm back William Seger Apr 2013 #73
reply to #73 arguille Apr 2013 #74
I keep asking for one GOOD reason William Seger Apr 2013 #79
reply to #79 arguille Apr 2013 #82
Baloney William Seger Apr 2013 #85
reply to #85 arguille Apr 2013 #92
Sliced thin and piled high, it's still baloney William Seger Apr 2013 #93
reply to #93 arguille Apr 2013 #94
On and on William Seger Apr 2013 #95
reply to #95 arguille Apr 2013 #97
Stairway to delusion William Seger Apr 2013 #99
reply to #99 arguille Apr 2013 #100
Oh, I don't really mind arguing with a brick wall William Seger Apr 2013 #108
reply to #108 arguille Apr 2013 #110
Credibility issue William Seger Apr 2013 #115
reply to #115 arguille Apr 2013 #117
Two words: Bull. Shit. William Seger Apr 2013 #118
reply to #118 arguille Apr 2013 #119
But I DID read it, "arguille" William Seger Apr 2013 #121
reply to #121 arguille Apr 2013 #124
If you're just going to keep repeating yourself William Seger Apr 2013 #127
reply to #127 arguille Apr 2013 #129
"What's that about likely or unlikely?" William Seger Apr 2013 #133
reply to #133 arguille Apr 2013 #135
By the way, this... William Seger Apr 2013 #131
reply to #131 arguille Apr 2013 #136
Well, that's the problem MrMickeysMom Apr 2013 #84
Clicking on your posts, hoping that maybe this time there will be something William Seger Apr 2013 #86
Point by point William Seger Apr 2013 #69
reply to post #69 arguille Apr 2013 #76
In other words, speculation and spin are all you've got William Seger Apr 2013 #80
"...but the single-bullet theory remains the best explanation of the facts." MrMickeysMom Apr 2013 #87
I'm sure arguille appreciates the cheerleading, but... William Seger Apr 2013 #88
You wish a fight over what you should wish to seek... MrMickeysMom Apr 2013 #89
I've been begging for any credible FACTS that refute the WC conclusions William Seger Apr 2013 #90
Reply to #80 arguille Apr 2013 #91
No offense, of course, but so what? William Seger Apr 2013 #96
reply to #96 arguille Apr 2013 #98
Good grief William Seger Apr 2013 #112
reply to #112 arguille Apr 2013 #113
More baloney? No thanks William Seger Apr 2013 #114
reply to #114 arguille Apr 2013 #116
Here we go 'round the mulberry bush William Seger Apr 2013 #122
reply to #122 arguille Apr 2013 #130
Thanks for the video William Seger Apr 2013 #132
reply to #132 arguille Apr 2013 #137
Pointless repetition William Seger Apr 2013 #140
reply to #140 arguille Apr 2013 #142
"What fact?" William Seger Apr 2013 #144
reply to #144 arguille Apr 2013 #147
Yeaaaaaah, THAT'S the ticket William Seger Apr 2013 #148
reply to #148 arguille Apr 2013 #149
But it IS bullshit, isn't it William Seger Apr 2013 #151
reply to #151 arguille Apr 2013 #153
LMAO William Seger Apr 2013 #156
reply to #156 arguille Apr 2013 #158
In other words, you have absolutely no sound evidence or logical reason William Seger Apr 2013 #160
reply to #160 arguille Apr 2013 #161
'Round the barn again William Seger Apr 2013 #162
reply to #162 arguille Apr 2013 #165
How about this: William Seger Apr 2013 #167
b) Fletcher Prouty worked at the Pentagon William Seger Mar 2013 #29
reply to #29 arguille Mar 2013 #34
And again, my point was... William Seger Mar 2013 #40
reply to #40 arguille Mar 2013 #44
Yes, they lie a lot William Seger Mar 2013 #48
reply to #48 arguille Mar 2013 #53
Well, if you think you can prove THAT, then... William Seger Mar 2013 #59
reply to #59 arguille Mar 2013 #61
Which just goes to show... William Seger Apr 2013 #70
reply to #70 arguille Apr 2013 #77
c) Seger dismisses information on Oswald's history and background as unsubstantial William Seger Mar 2013 #30
reply to #30 arguille Mar 2013 #35
"But there was a false defector program." William Seger Mar 2013 #39
reply to #39 arguille Mar 2013 #45
"illegal operations can be understood as including false defectors" William Seger Mar 2013 #50
reply to #50 arguille Mar 2013 #54
Baloney. Here's a link to the minutes of that meeting William Seger Mar 2013 #57
reply to #57 arguille Mar 2013 #62
"*IF* that were true and it ever came out and could be established" William Seger Apr 2013 #71
reply to #71 arguille Apr 2013 #75
Actually, what I'm claiming is... William Seger Apr 2013 #83
also to #71 arguille Apr 2013 #78
The minutes of the first Commission meeting, and I provided the link (n/t) William Seger Apr 2013 #81
d) Mexico City William Seger Mar 2013 #31
reply to #31 arguille Mar 2013 #36
"the provable fact that Oswald was framed" William Seger Mar 2013 #41
e) spooky one-note music. William Seger Mar 2013 #32
reply to #32 arguille Mar 2013 #37
Sez you William Seger Mar 2013 #42
reply to #42 arguille Mar 2013 #47
But I'm giving you every opportunity to change my mind William Seger Mar 2013 #49
reply to #49 arguille Mar 2013 #55
Baloney. It's not a "rhetorical device" to demand FACT-based DEDUCTIVE reasoning William Seger Mar 2013 #56
reply to #56 arguille Mar 2013 #63
Well now... MrMickeysMom Mar 2013 #68
Prove any one of them, then William Seger Apr 2013 #72
Made it to 1:38 in first video Riftaxe Mar 2013 #65
Wow!.... MrMickeysMom Mar 2013 #67
In the intro video, they say his head moved back when he was shot, ZombieHorde Apr 2013 #101
Shhhhh! zappaman Apr 2013 #102
I have only watched the first first video and half of the second, so they might address that point. ZombieHorde Apr 2013 #103
You should check this out as well zappaman Apr 2013 #104
That does look like his head moved forward to me. ZombieHorde Apr 2013 #105
reply to ZombieHorde arguille Apr 2013 #106
"It remains a point of contention five decades later." zappaman Apr 2013 #107
It does remain a point of contention... MrMickeysMom Apr 2013 #109
Well, I suppose the earth being round remains a point of contention since some believe it is flat... zappaman Apr 2013 #111
head movement and blood spatter arguille Apr 2013 #120
In other words, Fiester has NO CLUE the 2.5" forward head-snap even happened William Seger Apr 2013 #123
reply to #123 arguille Apr 2013 #125
"move minutely into the force" is NOT a 2.5" head-snap William Seger Apr 2013 #126
reply to #126 arguille Apr 2013 #128
"swell or move minutely into the force" is NOT a 2.5" forward head-snap William Seger Apr 2013 #134
reply to #134 arguille Apr 2013 #138
Yep, that's exactly the same thing Fiester was talking about William Seger Apr 2013 #139
reply to #139 arguille Apr 2013 #141
What's refuted is your bizarre interpretation of "contemporary ballistic science" William Seger Apr 2013 #143
reply to #143 arguille Apr 2013 #150
You just keep digging your hole deeper and deeper William Seger Apr 2013 #152
Reply to #152 arguille Apr 2013 #154
I really don't understand why you keep responding if that's the best you can do William Seger Apr 2013 #155
reply to #155 arguille Apr 2013 #157
... William Seger Apr 2013 #159
"Ballistics & Forensic Experts on the JFK Head Shot" William Seger Apr 2013 #163
reply to #163 arguille Apr 2013 #164
No, this is the ticket: William Seger Apr 2013 #166
BTW, Re: Fiester as an "expert" William Seger Apr 2013 #168
"Seger refutes contemporary ballistic science" with another video William Seger Apr 2013 #146
And by the way.... William Seger Apr 2013 #145
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Creative Speculation»Here's a correction OP fo...»Reply #162