Gun Control & RKBA
In reply to the discussion: This message was self-deleted by its author [View all]jimmy the one
(2,708 posts)icon: Homicide in the U.S. Known to Law Enforcement, 2011 .. Dec30, 2013 NCJ ... Data on nonfatal victimizations are from BJS's National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993 to 1995 and 2008 to 2011 ... the percentage of homicide victims killed by a firearm (67%) remained stable.
Your error this time, icon (& newbie acalix), is using homicide as being indicative of the overall drop in firearm crime from 1993 to now. Homicide is only about 2% of all firearm related violent crime. When you look at the bigger picture of total violent crime, you will see how the percentage using firearms did indeed drop about 33% from 92/93 to 2008, then it has risen the past couple years.
From a firearm related violent crime rate high of 9.2% & 9.3% in 1993 & 94 - as the gun ownership rates declined thru now - the FA related violent crime rate also declined steadily to 1999, then fell to a low of 6.2% & 6.0% in 2003 & 2008. That's from a 25% to 33% decline, which corroborates my hypothesis according to your standard & criteria.
From 2008 to now evidently FA related violent crime rate rose back up, post Obama or Heller, I pick heller.
Bur justice stats, may 2013 (NFFAV = non fatal firearm violence);
.. total FA VC.. FA hom ..non fatals .. NF incidents..NFFAV ..All viol w FA's
1993 1,548,000 18,253 1,529,700 1,222,700 7.3 9.2%
1994 1,585,700 17,527 1,568,200 1,287,200 7.4 9.3
1995 1,208,800 15,551 1,193,200 1,028,900 5.5 7.9
1996 1,114,800 14,037 1,100,800 939,500 5.1 7.9
1997 1,037,300 13,252 1,024,100 882,900 4.7 7.7
...1998 847,200 11,798 835,400 673,300 3.8 7.0
...1999 651,700 10,828 640,900 523,600 2.9 6.1
...2000 621,000 10,801 610,200 483,700 2.7 7.3
...2001 574,500 11,348 563,100 507,000 2.5 7.7
...2002 551,800 11,829 540,000 450,800 2.3 7.4
...2003 479,300 11,920 467,300 385,000 2.0 6.2
...2004 468,100 11,624 456,500 405,800 1.9 6.9
...2005 515,900 12,352 503,500 446,400 2.1 7.4
...2006 627,200 12,791 614,400 552,000 2.5 7.4
...2007 567,400 12,632 554,800 448,400 2.2 8.3
...2008 383,500 12,179 371,300 331,600 1.5 6.0
...2009 421,600 11,493 410,100 383,400 1.6 7.4
...2010 426,100 11,078 415,000 378,800 1.6 8.6
..2011d 478,400 11,101 467,300 414,600 1.8 8.2
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf
icon: You've offered up at least two logical fallacies, not evidence..
Go soak your head, I haven't committed logic fallacies, just offered opinions of the real reason violent crime rates fell from early 90's to now, to refute gunnut belief that it was the increase in guns & shall issue ccw which caused the decline, the real logic fallacy.
If you call my claims 'logic fallacies' then you must also call progun beliefs that guns caused the decline, logic fallacies.
icon: Here's another Latin phrase for your edification: Post hoc, ergo propter hoc ("after this, therefore because of this"
A Johnston clone I presume; better known in a sense in English as 'correlation does not prove causation', the latter being a corollary (imo) of the latin, only due the latin tenet coming first 2000 years ago (abouts). Poor Johnston didn't even know enough to connect the dots, thus fell onto a dastardly petard which hoisted him high.
icon: The two polls you cited may or may not be accurate (which brings up your other fallacy: confirmation bias)- but there's no evidence that one rate drove the other- if it did, murder via gun would have declined as a total percentage of murders.
But now you see that firearm related violent crime as a total percentage of total violent crime did indeed fall about 25% to 33% between 1993 & 2008, & on average maybe a 15% - 20% yearly drop to now, didn't it? so by your own logic, YOU LOSE.