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[acalix]

53. Repeated ad infintum

All violent crime (including non-firearm related violent crime) declined during the same period as violent firearm crime did.

In reality the drop in firearm violent related crime was caused by the same factor which caused non-firearm related violent crime to drop.


Your statistics agree with me. You are cherry picking 1998, 1999, and 2000. The decline in firearm homicides started from 1994 which saw little difference in percent of firearm homicides from 1993.

The temporary drop in percentage of firearm homicides occurred in 1998 right at the end of the decline in firearm homicides. If declining household gun ownership caused the drop, then why didn't the percent of firearm homicides decline significantly in 1994, 1996, or 1997? Those years are the biggest drops in homicides.

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

1993:

Homicide rate: 9.5

Percent of gun murders over all murders: 71.2%

1994:

Homicide rate: 9.0

Percent of gun murders over all murders: 71.4%

1995:

Homicide rate: 8.2

Percent of gun murders over all murders: 69%

1996:

Homicide rate: 7.4

Percent of gun murders over all murders: 68%

1997:

Homicide rate: 6.8

Percent of gun murders over all murders: 68%

1998: (significant decline in percentage of gun murders occurs)

Homicide rate: 6.3

Percent of gun murders over all murders: 65%

1999::

Homicide rate: 5.7

Percent of gun murders over all murders: 64%

Notice how the biggest decline in homicide rates happens between the years where the percentage of firearm homicides was not significant different from 1993?


Lastly according to the GSS gun ownership has remained stable since 2000:

So why did percentage of firearm homicides rise again? Why was there no increase in overall homicides or firearm homicides?

The proportion of firearm homicides in 1993 and 2011 is pretty much identical, but the homicide rate in 1993 was 9.5, and in 2011 it was 4.7.

So despite both years having roughly the same proportion of firearms used to commit homicide, why is the homicide rate in 2011 lower? It couldn't be the lower gun ownership in households because the proportion of guns used to commit murder in both years is almost identical.

That means declining household gun ownership could not be the cause of lower homicide rates. Rather another factor caused the decline in gun homicides, overall homicides, gun related violent crime and non-gun related violent crime.