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TPaine7

(4,286 posts)
55. Hmmmm...
Wed Aug 15, 2012, 04:00 PM
Aug 2012

There are a few problems with your analysis:

1. In a self-defense scenario, the life of the attacker and the life of the intended victim are not equivalent

If someone is about to murder you and you kill them, a life was lost. If someone succeeds in killing you, a life was lost. It's a wash, in anti-gun mentality.

I guess I'll have to say this explicitly: in a self-defense scenario, the life of the INNOCENT intended victim is worth more than the life of the criminal assailant. Denying that devalues the life of the innocent.

2. If the tool you're using can't measure the benefits, pretending that means there are no benefits is not legitimate

The lives saved by ending a criminal career—with the exception of the immediate intended victim(s)—are by definition future lives. They cannot possibly be counted using today's homicide numbers. But statistical methods can be used to estimate the probable murders of 500 to 700 real or alleged assailants. Based on the dead alleged assailants' criminal histories, it should be possible to estimate the murders they would have committed had they lived.

Yes, I know that estimates of future lives saved are just that—estimates. But that's exactly the type of problem that statistics are suited to. You can even use confidence intervals. It's not as if the future can't be dealt with using intellectual rigor and clear principles. Accountants do it all the time; have you ever heard of "accounts recievable"?

3. Using a biased and/or unqualified estimator is likely to result in a bogus estimate

According to the abstract of the study you're citing, their number of lives lost due to illigitimate self defense was based on POLICE classification, not court verdicts, grand jury sessions, judge opinions or even DA charges.

In a new area of law, with zero or very few court cases to guide them, what do you expect the police to do with 500 to 700 claimed self-defense shootings that may or may not be justified under the new and unfamiliar law? Most of the time, if the guy is dead, you shot the guy and you admit it to the cop but claim self-defense, I expect you will be classified as a murderer, at least for police purposes.

Why not use court verdicts? That could account for a lot of misclassified SYG shootings. I know it wouldn't advance the agenda, but wouldn't it be more accurate?

4. "Back-of-the-envelope calculations"

Are those "back-of-the-envelope" calculations impeccable and state of the art and do they account for every relevant variable?

To be honest, given the issues I saw reading the abstract, I haven't bothered to look at them. But I'm sure you'll vouch for them. After all, they may be one-sided, based on deeply flawed premises and grounded in a poor estimate by an illigitimate estimator, but they reached the right conclusions. Right?

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

I believe pretty much everyone agreed this wasn't an SYG case. ileus Aug 2012 #1
Well said nt Reasonable_Argument Aug 2012 #2
Of course SYG is still relevant. DanTex Aug 2012 #3
+1 Starboard Tack Aug 2012 #4
It wasn't due to stand your ground, it was due to incompetence or political intrigue. TPaine7 Aug 2012 #5
Here, let me jog your memory. DanTex Aug 2012 #10
Good links bongbong Aug 2012 #17
Hmmmm... TPaine7 Aug 2012 #32
Kudos, dude. ;) HALO141 Aug 2012 #36
Thanks for your support n/t TPaine7 Aug 2012 #37
LOL. So many words, but zero content. DanTex Aug 2012 #39
Zero convenient content TPaine7 Aug 2012 #43
It's always funny... DanTex Aug 2012 #45
It is funny. TPaine7 Aug 2012 #50
Lives saved by SYG? DanTex Aug 2012 #51
Hmmmm... TPaine7 Aug 2012 #55
... DanTex Aug 2012 #56
that doesn't even remotely sound logical gejohnston Aug 2012 #6
Except that it's true. DanTex Aug 2012 #14
except that is what the press release of the study claims gejohnston Aug 2012 #18
That's where proper instruction, training, and understanding ileus Aug 2012 #7
Aren't those laws already covered when you get a permit? Reasonable_Argument Aug 2012 #9
Some states maybe....Virginia no. ileus Aug 2012 #12
Ah ok Reasonable_Argument Aug 2012 #15
So rrneck Aug 2012 #8
It also increased the number of justifiable homicides ... spin Aug 2012 #13
LOL. Try reading a little more carefully. DanTex Aug 2012 #16
while it claims a the laws gejohnston Aug 2012 #20
Since I'm at work Reasonable_Argument Aug 2012 #21
I thought the homicide rates have been decreasing for some time. Kaleva Aug 2012 #22
They have. DanTex Aug 2012 #23
Okay. Thanks for the explanation! Kaleva Aug 2012 #24
Basically, yes. DanTex Aug 2012 #25
how would the castle doctrine cause the gejohnston Aug 2012 #26
Lots of ways. For example, it could encourage vigilanteism. DanTex Aug 2012 #27
do you know the difference between castle doctrine and SYG? gejohnston Aug 2012 #28
Nobody is surprised that you can't tell the difference between science and talking points. DanTex Aug 2012 #29
Nobody is surprised that you pretend to tell the difference to make yourself feel good. gejohnston Aug 2012 #30
You are totally ignoring my point. ... spin Aug 2012 #38
You're joking, right? DanTex Aug 2012 #40
I not only empathized the important part of the conclusion but I underlined it ... spin Aug 2012 #41
Hoist on his own petard. n/t X_Digger Aug 2012 #42
Literacy is such an important life skill. n/t TPaine7 Aug 2012 #44
That's why you need to look at the actual numbers DanTex Aug 2012 #46
If the numbers were right in the report then why did the authors use weasel words ... spin Aug 2012 #52
What you call "weasel words" are actually pretty normal for an economics paper. DanTex Aug 2012 #54
Wrong. TPaine7 Aug 2012 #58
Umm, no you are wrong. DanTex Aug 2012 #61
Really? You doubt my assumption? TPaine7 Aug 2012 #62
Yes, really. DanTex Aug 2012 #63
Ok then... TPaine7 Aug 2012 #66
How the externality could be positive: DanTex Aug 2012 #68
Well, we still disagree, but I enjoyed this conversation n/t TPaine7 Aug 2012 #69
I agree n/t DanTex Aug 2012 #70
Right. Callisto32 Aug 2012 #19
I also infer... discntnt_irny_srcsm Aug 2012 #11
Could that be because of George pursuing Trayvon after the dispatcher told him muntrv Aug 2012 #31
I think he could get around that. The dispatcher's suggestion does not carry the force of law. TPaine7 Aug 2012 #33
He ignored his training which was only to observe and report. Kaleva Aug 2012 #34
Agreed, but not legally definitive. n/t TPaine7 Aug 2012 #35
Last night I was talking to a local police officer in my area of Florida... spin Aug 2012 #64
It's already been used. Zman initially walked and would have remained uncharged without protests. Hoyt Aug 2012 #47
that had nothing to do with SYG either gejohnston Aug 2012 #48
Yes it did. Besides, you gun cultists will always claim they felt threatened by unarmed teenager -- Hoyt Aug 2012 #49
Teenagers can be very dangerous ... spin Aug 2012 #53
Kids are innocent...besides at your advanced age ileus Aug 2012 #57
I know, Illus, kindergartens are really scary places. Hoyt Aug 2012 #60
If your Kindergartens have teens then I'm sure ileus Aug 2012 #74
Uncle Sam also promised me that I would have free medical care for the rest of my life ... spin Aug 2012 #67
My Dad won't go anywhere near a VA hospital. ileus Aug 2012 #75
Spin, it must be tough going through life -- with your gun -- thinking of ways to distrust people. Hoyt Aug 2012 #59
Nope. Not tough at all. spin Aug 2012 #65
Is it me or is Hoyt a little grumpier than usual? nt Union Scribe Aug 2012 #71
Been staying up late to protect my Obama sign from the local right wing, bigoted gun cultists. Hoyt Aug 2012 #72
claymores gejohnston Aug 2012 #73
Kind of pricey ManiacJoe Aug 2012 #76
So you are at war with your neighbors as well as some of your fellow DUers slackmaster Aug 2012 #77
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