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Simo 1939_1940

(768 posts)
91. Here's the methodology of the NSDS. Readers can decide for themselves whether
Sat Sep 29, 2012, 01:45 AM
Sep 2012

or not appropriate precautions were taken to weed out false responses: (emphasis added)

1. Methods

The present survey is the first survey ever devoted to the subject of armed self-defense. It was carefully designed to correct all of the known correctable or avoidable flaws of previous surveys which critics have identified. We use the most anonymous possible national survey format, the anonymous random digit dialed telephone survey. We did not know the identities of those who were interviewed, and made this fact clear to the Rs. We interviewed a large nationally representative sample covering all adults, age eighteen and over, in the lower forty-eight states and living in households with telephones. [42] We asked DGU questions of all Rs in our sample, asking them separately about both their own DGU experiences and those of other members of their households. We used both a five year recall period and a one year recall period. We inquired about uses of both handguns and other types of guns, and excluded occupational uses of guns and uses against animals. Finally, we asked a long series of detailed questions designed to establish exactly what Rs did with their guns; for example, if they had confronted other humans, and how had each DGU connected to a specific crime or crimes.

We consulted with North America's most experienced experts on gun-related surveys, David Bordua, James Wright, and Gary Mauser, along with survey expert Seymour Sudman, in order to craft a state-of-the-art survey instrument designed specifically to establish the frequency and nature of DGUs. [43] A professional telephone polling firm, [Page 161] Research Network of Tallahassee, Florida, carried out the sampling and interviewing. Only the firm's most experienced interviewers, who are listed in the acknowledgements, were used on the project. Interviews were monitored at random by survey supervisors. All interviews in which an alleged DGU was reported by the R were validated by supervisors with call-backs, along with a 20% random sample of all other interviews. Of all eligible residential telephone numbers called where a person rather than an answering machine answered, 61% resulted in a completed interview. Interviewing was carried out from February through April of 1993.

The quality of sampling procedures was well above the level common in national surveys. Our sample was not only large and nationally representative, but it was also stratified by state. That is, forty-eight independent samples of residential telephone numbers were drawn, one from each of the lower forty- eight states, providing forty-eight independent, albeit often small, state samples. Given the nature of randomly generated samples of telephone numbers, there was no clustering of cases or multistage sampling as there is in the NCVS; [44] consequently, there was no inflation of sampling error due to such procedures. To gain a larger raw number of sample DGU cases, we oversampled in the south and west regions, where previous surveys have indicated gun ownership is higher. [45] We also oversampled within contacted households for males, who are more likely to own guns and to be victims of crimes in which victims might use guns defensively. [46] Data were later weighted to adjust for oversampling.

Each interview began with a few general "throat-clearing" questions about problems facing the R's community and crime. The interviewers then asked the following question: "Within the past five years, have you yourself or another member of your household used a gun, even if it was not fired, for self-protection or for the protection of property at home, work, or elsewhere? Please do not include military service, police work, or work as a security guard." Rs who answered "yes" were then asked: "Was this to protect against an animal or a person?" Rs who reported a DGU against a person were asked: "How many incidents involving defensive uses of guns against persons happened to members of your household in the past five years?" and "Did this incident [any of these incidents] happen in the past twelve [Page 162] months?" At this point, Rs were asked "Was it you who used a gun defensively, or did someone else in your household do this?"

All Rs reporting a DGU were asked a long, detailed series of questions establishing exactly what happened in the DGU incident. Rs who reported having experienced more than one DGU in the previous five years were asked about their most recent experience. When the original R was the one who had used a gun defensively, as was usually the case, interviewers obtained his or her firsthand account of the event. When the original R indicated that some other member of the household was the one who had the experience, interviewers made every effort to speak directly to the involved person, either speaking to that person immediately or obtaining times and dates to call back. Up to three call- backs were made to contact the DGU-involved person. We anticipated that it would sometimes prove impossible to make contact with these persons, so interviewers were instructed to always obtain a proxy account of the DGU from the original R, on the assumption that a proxy account would be better than none at all. It was rarely necessary to rely on these proxy accounts-- only six sample cases of DGUs were reported through proxies, out of a total of 222 sample cases.

While all Rs reporting a DGU were given the full interview, only a one-third random sample of Rs not reporting a DGU were interviewed. The rest were simply thanked for their help. This procedure helped keep interviewing costs down. In the end, there were 222 completed interviews with Rs reporting DGUs, another 1,610 Rs not reporting a DGU but going through the full interview by answering questions other than those pertaining to details of the DGUs. There were a total of 1,832 cases with the full interview. An additional 3,145 Rs answered only enough questions to establish that no one in their household had experienced a DGU against a human in the previous five years (unweighted totals). These procedures effectively undersampled for non-DGU Rs or, equivalently, oversampled for DGU-involved Rs. Data were also weighted to account for this oversampling.

Questions about the details of DGU incidents permitted us to establish whether a given DGU met all of the following qualifications for an incident to be treated as a genuine DGU: (1) the incident involved defensive action against a human rather than an animal, but not in connection with police, military, or security guard duties; (2) the incident involved actual contact with a person, rather than merely investigating suspicious circumstances, etc.; (3) the defender could state a specific crime which he thought was being committed at the time of the incident; (4) the gun was actually used in some way--at a minimum it had to be used as part of a threat against a person, either by [Page 163] verbally referring to the gun (e.g., "get away--I've got a gun&quot or by pointing it at an adversary. We made no effort to assess either the lawfulness or morality of the Rs' defensive actions.

An additional step was taken to minimize the possibility of DGU frequency being overstated. The senior author went through interview sheets on every one of the interviews in which a DGU was reported, looking for any indication that the incident might not be genuine. A case would be coded as questionable if even just one of four problems appeared: (1) it was not clear whether the R actually confronted any adversary he saw; (2) the R was a police officer, member of the military or a security guard, and thus might have been reporting, despite instructions, an incident which occurred as part of his occupational duties; (3) the interviewer did not properly record exactly what the R had done with the gun, so it was possible that he had not used it in any meaningful way; or (4) the R did not state or the interviewer did not record a specific crime that the R thought was being committed against him at the time of the incident. There were a total of twenty-six cases where at least one of these problematic indications was present. It should be emphasized that we do not know that these cases were not genuine DGUs; we only mean to indicate that we do not have as high a degree of confidence on the matter as with the rest of the cases designated as DGUs.
Estimates using all of the DGU cases are labelled herein as "A" estimates, while the more conservative estimates based only on cases devoid of any problematic indications are labelled "B" estimates.

Here is the disclosure that appears at the beginning of Kleck's book "Targeting Guns" - clearly presented as a pre-emptive defense against smearmasters such as yourself who falsely insinuate that he's "on the take" from the NRA:

The author is a member of the American Civil Liberties Union, Amnesty International USA, Independent Action, Democrats 2000, and Common Cause, among other politically liberal organizations. He is a lifelong registered Democrat, as well as a contributor to liberal Democratic candidates. He is not now, nor has he ever been, a member of, or contributor to, the National Rifle Association, Handgun Control, Inc. nor any other advocacy organization, nor has he received funding for research from any such organization.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

I agree 100% what this man Missycim Sep 2012 #1
That is exactly what the Second Amendment is for slackmaster Sep 2012 #2
if it were me, I would move my business to a different location. Tuesday Afternoon Sep 2012 #3
Some people are just stubborn about not letting the barbarians push them out of their homes. PavePusher Sep 2012 #11
while I agree in theory (although this was a place of business) In my own Life Tuesday Afternoon Sep 2012 #13
This message was self-deleted by its author AnotherMcIntosh Sep 2012 #54
There have been similar stories over the years ProgressiveProfessor Sep 2012 #4
I remember a LIFE magazine article that ran in the 1960s. GreenStormCloud Sep 2012 #6
Pretty resilient guy. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #5
Posts like this display your true colors........ Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #14
You're joking, right? Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #18
How can you have a civilized society gejohnston Sep 2012 #19
Giving in to sociopaths? I doubt anyone is suggesting that. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #20
Yes they can gejohnston Sep 2012 #22
No, I would never suggest giving in to sociopaths. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #25
While agree with that, gejohnston Sep 2012 #48
Ah, but the long term is made up of lots of little short terms. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #68
but the two are not mutually exclusive gejohnston Sep 2012 #70
If crime rates are tied to gun sales, why are sales up right now? Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #72
not entirely gejohnston Sep 2012 #74
No, I'm not joking. Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #23
I stand by those posts. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #26
This message was self-deleted by its author Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #82
This message was self-deleted by its author AnotherMcIntosh Sep 2012 #27
On the "factual basis" of my supremely excellent sense of humor. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #31
Bullsh*t. Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #38
WTF! Continuing slurs against Gary Kleck. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #42
This message was self-deleted by its author Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #81
Looks like I misinterpreted your statement........ Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #83
his data was only way off according to gejohnston Sep 2012 #84
No, it was off according to me. I'm not familiar with Hemenway. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #86
And "sorry" - your analysis of the survey was excruciatingly dishonest. Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #89
Those who bought it were motivated to buy it. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #92
it works both ways gejohnston Sep 2012 #94
I don't know what Dan would be doing. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #109
does that make you anti science? gejohnston Sep 2012 #111
Of course not. I just don't like the science applied by Klek. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #120
and award winning gejohnston Sep 2012 #123
Me? What original hypothesis? DanTex Sep 2012 #113
I don't know about everyone gejohnston Sep 2012 #115
See, that's what I'm talking about. DanTex Sep 2012 #118
because your criticisms are void of substance gejohnston Sep 2012 #121
"Those who bought it were motivated to buy it." Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #134
WTF are you talking about? Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #136
how was it poorly acquired? gejohnston Sep 2012 #137
It's not that I don't like the conclusions. They are absurd. 2.5 million dgus/year. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #138
If I were to say that gejohnston Sep 2012 #140
Got me wrong again GE Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #147
This message was self-deleted by its author Simo 1939_1940 Oct 2012 #153
So you're going to continue to lie about what you said? Simo 1939_1940 Oct 2012 #151
Here's the methodology of the NSDS. Readers can decide for themselves whether Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #91
I'd love to see one like that done on fishing. I'd give it the same credibility. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #93
In 1993 when Kleck's survey was done, cell phones were very rare. GreenStormCloud Sep 2012 #116
I didn't mention cellphones. I did mention landlines, which was my point. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #124
Hemenway's funding source gejohnston Sep 2012 #125
Funny thing is, I am pretty agnostic on the issue. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #129
have you noticed that gejohnston Sep 2012 #131
Sure. A highly reputable department. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #132
If he published in a gejohnston Sep 2012 #133
Not only that, but other criminologists have looked at the Kleck study, and found it to be junk. DanTex Sep 2012 #126
Thanks for the links. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #144
Not surprisingly, you are dead wrong yet again on the issue of anonymity. Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #135
Are you for real? Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #139
in which case, gejohnston Sep 2012 #141
No, you would have had what you got. A load of crap. A house of cards. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #145
sorry, I'll take the word of gejohnston Sep 2012 #146
"You cannot build a case without a credible foundation. Sorry." Simo 1939_1940 Oct 2012 #150
Again, you lie about the approach used by the interviewers, and ignore Simo 1939_1940 Oct 2012 #149
The fact *is*, Gary Kleck is a very nice guy. Here's a chance to hear him speak: Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #85
Sounds like a nice guy. I never thought he was a NRA stooge. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #88
Of course it doesn't change your view. Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #90
Well just for the record, it made me laugh. petronius Sep 2012 #39
Thank you sir. A man with some class and a sense of humor. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #43
Also, just for the record glacierbay Sep 2012 #49
Thanks, I'll do my best. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #62
Blasphemy! bongbong Sep 2012 #28
I am the king of blasphemy around here. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #32
This post is just full of win. n/t ellisonz Sep 2012 #33
Or maybe it is full of Hoplophobia. Just an observation, sweetie. rDigital Sep 2012 #46
Sweetie? ellisonz Sep 2012 #50
Sweetie. rDigital Sep 2012 #52
Go Cheney yourself. ellisonz Sep 2012 #55
Not sure what that means. Tell us how you really feel! nt rDigital Sep 2012 #75
I think that it means that he REALLY likes you. n/t oneshooter Sep 2012 #142
: ) nt rDigital Sep 2012 #143
that reminds me, I'm about to go to the dump: UNARMED!!!!!! Warren Stupidity Sep 2012 #104
Good for him 4th law of robotics Sep 2012 #7
It might not have been a "high crime area" when he set up.... PavePusher Sep 2012 #12
Do you propose bank tellers be armed? Shootouts at Wells Fargo? Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #21
I used to work for Wells Fargo. I was armed. GreenStormCloud Sep 2012 #59
I used to bank at a Wells Fargo branch in Marina Del Rey about 20 years ago Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #61
It is cheaper and better to have the bullet-proof glass. GreenStormCloud Sep 2012 #64
Pretty much the same for me. Debit card and cash back for sundries. Starboard Tack Sep 2012 #66
I can't even remember the last time I went into our bank glacierbay Sep 2012 #69
Funny story about my dad... AtheistCrusader Oct 2012 #154
Wow. If this guy was a Fighter Pilot, they'd be calling him Ace. n/t cherokeeprogressive Sep 2012 #8
Sounds like he's ready to open his own tactical training school. ileus Sep 2012 #9
I guess I heard it right: 5 yrs for one of the thugs... Eleanors38 Sep 2012 #10
Drives home a **very** important lesson stressed by Massad. Simo 1939_1940 Sep 2012 #15
Wow. That guy's story is wild. Training is your friend. Gang members aren't. nt rDigital Sep 2012 #16
Smells like the gangs have that part of lala in political play... Eleanors38 Sep 2012 #17
Are you advocating that the LAPD kill gang members for the purpose of intimidation? n/t ellisonz Sep 2012 #35
Nope. nt Eleanors38 Sep 2012 #36
Would you care to elaborate... ellisonz Sep 2012 #37
I am not a cop, nor have I ever played one on TV, and I haven't stayed petronius Sep 2012 #41
What he probably meant glacierbay Sep 2012 #44
Cops could take advantage of revenge doers, even if they are hoplophobic. rDigital Sep 2012 #47
It really is a Charles Bronson world. trouble.smith Sep 2012 #24
5:0 plus a couple in jail? You can win by attrition. AtheistCrusader Oct 2012 #155
This message was self-deleted by its author AnotherMcIntosh Sep 2012 #29
Wimp! bongbong Sep 2012 #30
This Half Rambo shit is embarrasing! ellisonz Sep 2012 #34
Maybe he joined the ranks of the U.S Hoplophobic Army. Now, he's cowering in his basement. rDigital Sep 2012 #40
So your against someone defending themselves and their property? glacierbay Sep 2012 #45
I'm against someone who shoots first and thinks later. ellisonz Sep 2012 #51
Like I told ST gejohnston Sep 2012 #53
On the contrary, it appears he had *every* reason to shoot first. friendly_iconoclast Sep 2012 #56
In each incident the gang members initiated the violence. GreenStormCloud Sep 2012 #58
Not true glacierbay Sep 2012 #60
"You don't condemn the criminals" ellisonz Sep 2012 #63
Then you should be against the criminals in these incidents. They started the violence. GreenStormCloud Sep 2012 #65
There's stupidity on both sides. n/t ellisonz Sep 2012 #73
Much much more on the criminal side glacierbay Sep 2012 #79
But nobody is worshipping the criminals as heroes. DanTex Sep 2012 #96
but your side is not condemning them either gejohnston Sep 2012 #98
What "my side" does is point out that this gun hero made a dumb decision. DanTex Sep 2012 #99
Iraq is not remotely revevent gejohnston Sep 2012 #101
The principle is the same. You are trying to paint people who disagree with you as pro-criminal DanTex Sep 2012 #103
I don't know pro criminal, but certainly anti self defense gejohnston Sep 2012 #106
Your correct that nobody is worshipping the criminals as heroes. glacierbay Sep 2012 #127
The story isn't about criminals and neither is this group. Starboard Tack Oct 2012 #156
If it were just this one comment glacierbay Oct 2012 #157
accusing someone who stands up to sociopaths gejohnston Oct 2012 #158
Whatever guy glacierbay Sep 2012 #67
I'll say it, too: You don't condemn the criminals and this thread is prima facie evidence of that. friendly_iconoclast Sep 2012 #71
I don't underatand. Why didn't the police protect him and how did those criminals get those guns trouble.smith Sep 2012 #57
^Typical obtuse RWer ... eom Kolesar Sep 2012 #76
So I guess you can't explain why all those gun laws & all those cops didn't make this guy any safer? trouble.smith Sep 2012 #77
^ File this one under: "fucked premise" ... eom Kolesar Sep 2012 #78
Yes, the premise that anti-gun laws keep guns out of the hands of criminals is completely fucked trouble.smith Sep 2012 #80
Every incident of a gun being used in a crime is meticulously cited and cataloged 4th law of robotics Sep 2012 #87
Umm... wouldn't it have been better to just shut down the shop from the get-go? DanTex Sep 2012 #95
perhaps, but like I told ST gejohnston Sep 2012 #97
It would be an intelligent choice. DanTex Sep 2012 #100
tell you what gejohnston Sep 2012 #102
Not respected by the NRA crowd, of course. DanTex Sep 2012 #105
I believe in science gejohnston Sep 2012 #107
LOL. "follow the scientific method". DanTex Sep 2012 #108
did he? gejohnston Sep 2012 #110
Yes, he did. DanTex Sep 2012 #112
he lived, gejohnston Sep 2012 #114
He was shot several times and had to shut down his business and is now hiding from a gang. Success! DanTex Sep 2012 #117
If he didn't resist, he could have been dead gejohnston Sep 2012 #122
Calling something a talking point is NOT a rebuttal. GreenStormCloud Sep 2012 #119
Like the man in the video said, it's about PRINCIPLE Atypical Liberal Oct 2012 #152
This is a guns as solution to guns story. Zero points awarded. Loudly Sep 2012 #128
Who really cares. oneshooter Sep 2012 #130
This is what we should aspire to in this country? jpak Sep 2012 #148
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