The White Male Union Voter 2016

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Going back to 1976 there has always been a schism between traditional and non traditional Democrats

Going back to at least 1976 there has always been a schism between traditional Democrats and non-traditional Democrats with people of color siding with the traditional Democrat in every race.

Every race has had its non traditional candidate and in some instances some non traditional candidates were more non traditional than others. In 76 it was Mo Udall and Jerry Brown though he was a late entrant, In 84 it was Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson, in 88 it was Jesse Jackson, in 92 it was Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown, in 00 it was Bill Bradley, in 04 it was Howard Dean, in 08 It was ???

Although Bernie's politics is very different than those other gentlemen he inherits their supporters... They didn't get very far...Only Hart posed a serious threat to the traditional candidate, Mondale, and he was incredibly charismatic, polled well against Reagan, and had Jesse Jackson in the race who siphoned off African American voters who were likely going to vote for Walter Mondale...

Barack Obama won the nomination because he was able to marry upper income white support to African American support and even that support did not come automatically. He had to defeat Hillary in homogeneous Iowa to prove to African American Democrats he had the crossover appeal to prevail in a general election. If Hillary could have even mitigated her losses among African American Democratic primary voters she would have won the nomination.

Conclusion- African American and Latino Democrats gravitate to the "establishment" candidate. That's an empirical observation and not a normative one.

I expect Bernie to be competitive in homogeneous IA and NH. I don't expect him to be competitive in the heterogeneous states...


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I am a huge fan of Bain's Bain but I'm not convinced capitalism is dead or worth junking...Of course, laissez faire capitalism is...I eschew labels but I subscribe to John Lennon's definition of socialism , "if socialism mean the government should pay for granny to have her teeth fixed then I'm a socialist."