African American
In reply to the discussion: Hillary Clinton has basically won the nomination - and a big reason for that is Black voters [View all]Kind of Blue
(8,709 posts)From page 16 of the study Are Blacks and Latinos Responsible for the Passage of Proposition 8? Analyzing Voter Attitudes on Californias Proposal to Ban Same-Sex Marriage in 2008
University of California San Diego
If Latino and Blacks increased rates of turnout were responsible for the passage of Proposition 8, then would their vote preferences, if calculated at the 2004 turnout rates, result in a defeat of Proposition 8? The total number of voters who casted their ballots on Prop 8 were 10,271,399 and the difference in the number of voters who supported and opposed the initiative is 504,479.
If Black and Latinos voters in 2008 voted at the same rates as they did in 2004, their combined support for Prop osition 8 still far exceeds the vote difference in support/opposition of it. Moreover, regardless of the survey estimates used (DBR or NEP), the total number of Blacks and Latinos who voted for Proposition 8 would still have led to its passage. Thus, the increase in the rates of Black and Latino turnout in the 2008 general election is not to blame for the passage of Proposition 8. Even if these two groups in the California voted at the same levels as they did in 2004, it would still have been enough to ban same-sex marriage in California.http://pages.ucsd.edu/~mabrajano/page2/prq_2010.pdf