Hopkins vs Kovalev [View all]

[H2O Man]

On November 8, Bernard Hopkins will meet Sergey Kovalev in a light heavyweight title unification bout. HBO will be televising the fight, which is being held in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Although the true light heavyweight champion is Adonis Stevenson, this fight -- which is for the IBF, WBA, and WBO titles -- is not only the best match-up in the division, it promises to be one of the most important in boxing this year.

Hopkins is, of course, one of the sport’s legendary figures. He secured his place high on the list of the greatest middleweight champions years ago, with a long and dominant reign. When it seemed that his age was finally catching up to him, and lost a pair of decisions to Jermain Taylor in 2005, he stunned the boxing community by moving up to light heavyweight, and beating Antonio Tarver for the title.

Over the next few years, Hopkins would continue to compete with some of the elite fighters at the higher weights. Although he would lose a couple of decisions, his fights were always close, and he continued to pull off upsets against much younger, less experienced top fighters. Although his fights were rarely exciting, it was impressive to watch this well-conditioned, supremely self-confident veteran use every trick in the book to defeat opponents at the top of their division.

This second half of his career is, as much as his middleweight reign, good reason to secure his ranking high among boxing’s all time greats. Yet, one could not help but wonder when he might be pushing it too far, and become old in the ring? As Bernard approaches the age of 50, the fight against Kovalev would be the most dangerous to have that happen.

Kovalev is 25-0-1, with 23 knockouts. Although Bernard is slightly taller, and has a reach advantage, Sergey is the naturally bigger man (he’s been a light heavyweight throughout his careeer, while Bernard has moved up to the division). He appears physically the stronger of the two, and definitely hits much harder. Indeed, one opponent died a few days after fighting Sergey, from injuries sustained in the bout. And he reportedly fractured his last opponent’s ribs with a stiff right to the body.

Kovalev’s path to victory seems rather obvious. He needs to dictate the pace in every round against his 49-year old opponent. He can’t allow Bernard to frustrate him on the inside, where Hopkins uses his head, shoulders, forearms, and elbows as weapons. Bernard’s best punch, at this point in his long career, is the right hand: he bends at the knees, ducks his head, and leaps at his opponent. No matter if the blow lands cleanly or not, he follows it with the top of his head. If the opponent is upright, Bernard pushes them back; if they’ve ducked, he pushes down on them. Both tactics are effective in tiring his opponent.

Sergey has to respond to these tactics by punishing Hopkins. This includes discouraging Bernard with a stiff jab. Then, when Hopkins lunges forward, he needs to respond by both landing hard punches, and also by using his greater strength inside. Hopkins does have two “no contests” -- both coming early in bouts where he was not ahead on the score cards. The first came as a result of wrestling while clinching. The second, which is more important, came when Chad Dawson responding to the lead right-lunge by tossing Bernard to the canvas. It was ironic that a master of “dirty tactics” howled when Dawson turned the tables on him, then refused to continue. Dawson beat Hopkins in their rematch more convincingly than did Joe Calzaghe (in a close bout that I though Hopkins won).

Kovalev does not seem intimidated by Hopkins’ pre-fight behavior. While he definitely respects his older foe, he seems amused by Bernard’s antics. Sergey has said that he is approaching this as a “street fight,” and is not looking for a knockout. If he maintains this mindset, he not only has a good chance of winning, but may very well be the first to stop Bernard.

Hopkins has had important experience in beating champions who stand straight up, and who flattened most challengers with straight punches. They include Felix Trinidad and Kelly Pavlik, both of whom had devastating power. In fact, a year ago, Hopkins said that Sergey is another Pavlik; he also said that Kovalev would be the easiest of the top three light heavyweights for him to defeat.

However, it is important to note that both Trinidad and Pavlik were smaller than Hopkins. Neither was nearly as strong as Sergey, nor was their punching power in the same league. (This is no knock on them; both were solid fighters in their prime, and Trinidad was among the great champions of his era.) Thus, Hopkins has to adopt a somewhat different approach in this fight.

The model for this slightly different approach can be found in two victories of one of the unlikeliest of boxers to illustrate this technique: former heavyweight contender Jerry Quarry. In June of 1970, he faced undefeated Mac Foster at Madison Square Garden. Foster, who had served as a US Marine in Vietnam, had won all 24 of his fights by knockout. Besides having extreme punching power, Foster had impressive ring skills. Quarry was considered to be a step towards his eventually challenging for the heavyweight title.

However, Mac stood straight up, and was most effective when he measured his opponent with straight punches. Once he had the correct distance, he unloaded a vicious left hook, capable of taking out any opponent. Quarry fought Foster in much the same manner that Bernard fought Tito and Kelly: frequently changing the distance between them, stepping out to the sides, getting off punches first and last in exchanges, and punishing Foster for every missed punch and error. Foster became anxious, and fell apart when Quarry stepped up the pace.

Quarry faced the undefeated Ron Lyle in February of 1973. Lyle was 19-0, with 17 knockouts. The fight was also at Madison Square Garden, and was intended as a step-up for Lyle, who had the potential to become champion. Ron was bigger than Foster; his build was more solid, and he was among the strongest heavyweights from any era. More, having literally died on an operating table after being stabbed in prison, Lyle was without fear in the ring.

Quarry had faster hands, and was quicker with upper-body movement. And he was a talented counter-puncher. Early in the 12 round bout, he found that while he could outland Ron in exchanges, Lyle was not being seriously hurt by his punches. Also, Lyle remained calm and stuck with his plan to wear Quarry out. Because of Ron’s enormous strength, and ability to land punches when Quarry was moving backwards, Jerry made the adjustments needed to be able to last the 12 rounds. Rather than creating big differences in the space between them, he stayed close to Lyle, and focused more on creating angles, constantly turning his opponent -- and winning 7, 9, and 10 of the rounds on the score cards (Lyle won 4, 1, and 2 respectively).

Kovalev is bigger, stronger, and hits significantly harder than Trinidad or Pavlik. But he is slower. Hence, Bernard’s best bet will be to make the same general adjustment as did Quarry, which has to do with ring geography. It means staying relatively close to Sergey, yet not allowing him to get set to fire punches. Making use of angles, and spinning the slower man. Not allowing Kovalev to use his physical strength -- including punching power -- to tire Bernard.

Kovalev has the slight edge in physical gifts, Bernard has the slight edge in mental strength. It’s about as an even a fight on paper as can be. May the best man win.

Enjoy the fight!