Alvarez vs Kirkland (May 9) [View all]

[H2O Man]

May 9; on HBO

Houston: Canelo Alvarez vs. James Kirkland; 12 rounds at junior middleweight.


Some of the boxing community loves “the Sweet Science,” as displayed by Floyd Mayweather last weekend. Others prefer bloody brawls, such as last night’s ESPN main event, featuring two powerful heavyweight sluggers. I think it is safe to say that all sports fans will find tonight’s bout, featured on HBO, exciting.

Although no title is at stake, the fight is scheduled for 12 rounds. This is in part due to the significance of the fight itself, and in part because the promoters believe it will result in Canelo’s being able to challenge middleweight champion Miguel Cotto in the fall. Indeed, Cotto and Canelo were in negotiations for a “super fight” for May 2 at Madison Square Garden, until Floyd Mayweather announced that he would be defending his championship against Manny Pacquiao on that date.

Hence, Canelo and Cotto opted to have “warm up” fights in May -- obviously a wise choice on paper, since the ringside seats last Saturday sold for $100,000-plus, and pay-per view sales may exceed five million. It is hard to compete with those numbers. Yet, while Cotto is taking a “soft” fight on June 6, Alvarez was willing to roll the dice against a dangerous foe. This is a classic case of a hungry Young Lion pursuing an aging Lion King, looking to replace him as the champion.

Alvarez is a compelling fighter. He is certainly the best Mexican warrior of his generation, and he has transcended that, to become one of the most popular boxers today. His milk-white skin and red hair create the look of an Irishman, and his style combines solid offensive and defensive skills that belie his boyish smile outside the ring. He is, at age 24, already a great fighter. He seeks to be recognized as an all-time great, by going after the very best competition available.

By facing James Kirkland, Alvarez is hoping to create a demand that Cotto -- assuming Miguel is not upset in June -- face him rather than Mayweather in September. Likewise, Kirkland believes that by beating Alvarez, he will put himself in line for a shot at Cotto and the middleweight title.

Both men are about 5’ 9”, with 70” reaches. Alvarez is six years younger; he fights orthodox, while Kirkland is a south-paw. Canelo’s record is 44 (31)-1-1, while Kirkland’s is 32 (28) - 1 (1). They have faced one common top-ten opponent, Alfredo Angulo: in 2011, Kirkland became the first person to deck Angulo, in TKOing him in six rounds; in 2014, Canelo stopped him in ten rounds.

In his only loss, Kirkland was stunned and dropped three times in the first round by an opponent that he took for granted. James had began a comeback in the ring after serving time for an illegal gun conviction, and had also switched trainers before this bout. He entered the ring cold, and while he was not hurt, he couldn’t maintain his balance against his much-taller opponent. Canelo’s sole defeat was a one-sided decision loss to Mayweather. Both fighters have come back well since their defeats.

Canelo tended to score knockouts early in his career. He usually faced much smaller, inferior opposition. His career was being overshadowed by Julio Chavez, Jr., the son of the great Mexican champion, who likewise was fed a steady diet of smaller, weak opposition. However, Alvarez soon progressed well beyond Chavez, Jr.’s skill level. Although he doesn’t score as many knockouts recently, it is because he consistently fights the top opposition.

Kirkland, on the other hand, has never had it easy. This is largely because of choices that he has made. For most of his career, he was trained and managed by Ann Wolf, arguably the best female boxer ever. Her unconventional style of training is a combination of Cus D’Amato and marine boot camp. It proved successful for exactly as long as James invested himself in it, for it provided him with the ability to deliver his crushing power -- and the mental toughness to struggle through, and overcome, fights against more talented fighters.

In theory, Canelo should be able to out-box, wear-down, and eventually stop Kirkland. His overall skills are far superior. But, of course, the two are not fighting “in theory.” Kirkland has a solid chance, based upon two factors. First, he fights at a much faster pace than Canelo is comfortable at. Canelo tends to suck weight in the last week of training, and the repeated dehydration, followed by extreme re-hydration/ weigh gain, is not favorable to fighting many rounds at an intense pace. Canelo prefers to fight in spurts, and does get winded by the middle rounds. Kirkland has only shown one gear thus far, a high-pressured seek-and-destroy.

Second, Kirkland has enormous punching power. He is brutal in the ring, and merciless if he hurts an opponent. The one thing to watch for, in my opinion, is a defensive tactic Canelo has mastered -- rolling his head with a shot, a trick associated with the top Mexican fighters. It is extremely high risk against Kirkland, so much so that if Canelo attempts it often, that I think Kirkland will be able to stop him.

It is difficult to imagine this being anything less than an exciting, highly entertaining bout. May the best man win. Enjoy the fight!