Have We Already Won the Renewables Revolution?

[kristopher]

26. Subject

Have We Already Won the Renewables Revolution?
Tam Hunt looks at the clear—and not-so-clear—trajectories for renewables, efficiency and electric vehicles.

Could we have already reached a point where current trajectories for renewable energy, energy efficiency and alternative transportation are clear enough that we can reasonably suggest that a revolution has occurred?

Yes. For the most part, the game is indeed won. We are on the path to renewable energy ubiquity -- and it’s unlikely to be derailed even if policy support falters for these technologies.

There are still some uncertainties, but let’s start by examining the clearer trajectories.


Renewable energy is trending rapidly toward ubiquity

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Source: REN21 Global Status Report 2016

The world is inevitably becoming more energy-efficient

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FIGURE 2: EIA’s Energy Intensity Projections

Electric car adoption is growing rapidly, but still not trending toward ubiquity

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A recent Goldman Sachs report estimates that about 50 percent of all new car sales will be EVs by 2025. Under this trend, we’ll see almost all new cars become electric by around 2030. With an average vehicle lifetime of 10 to 15 years, it is possible that our entire passenger car fleet will become electric by around 2045 or so. This is encouraging.

FIGURE 3: EV, Solar and LED Sales Estimates for 2025

https://dqbasmyouzti2.cloudfront.net/content/images/articles/Goldman_Sachs_solar,_EV_and_LEDs.png

Source: Goldman Sachs

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FIGURE 4: Battery Energy Density and Costs, Historical and Targeted



Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2016

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What could derail the revolution?

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https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/have-we-already-won-the-renewables-revolution