Anyone used the SIR for infectious disease?

[Pobeka]

4. Tweaked the code and made a graph

http://imgur.com/a/2MHcy0A

The code tweak was to directly model the recovery/death time as 7 days. The code uses new cases from 7 days prior, as an estimate of how many cases to remove from the infected population.

The graph reflects just 10% of the total active cases, assuming they'd be the ones needing critical care/ventilators etc.

What's interesting is if you delay the social distancing measure by 33% at 4 weeks (approx now), you still reduce the peak by well over half. The peak comes sooner in this case because there are more cases at week 4 (due to no social distancing) than the 33% social distancing that starts immediately