If I believe that the probability that at least one god exists is exactly 50%, then am I an atheist?

[dmallind]

5. No it doesn't, and since when are there only two options?

Or three to be accurate to the analogy. That's nothing more than warmed over Pascal's Wagerism. There are hundreds of religions on earth. There have been thousands. If you bet on Allah, you will get no reward if Buddha was right. If you bet on Jesus, no luck if Guru Nanak had it nailed. The idea that it's "my god or no god" is irrational special pleading and absurdly parochial.

Lacking belief in X is not at all the same as being firm in the belief that there is a total absence of X. I do not believe the Cubs will win the World Series, but at a prima facie 30s to 1 shot that's not even all that improbable. Even if you consider history and make them 100s-1 it's still many many times more likely than a random Powerball ticket winning, and one does so every few days or weeks. But I utterly lack all semblance of a belief that they will win, and I know for sure they both exist and will try.