Rare Rain Delay at the Dogers Game Last Night

[JayhawkSD]

1. It's not actually El Nino

For one thing, while it seems to be in the process of strengthening, El Nino is still "weak to moderate" at this point. There is hope that it will continue to strengthen and that by next winter's rainy season it might produce results along the lines of the 1997-1998 season. They said that last year, though, and our rainy season this year was well below normal, so I'm not holding my breath.

Mainly, though, El Nino makes itself felt during the rainy season in southern California, Oct thru March mostly, because it does not modify the weather patterns but only serves to strengthen them and make storms wetter. It puts more moisture into the atmosphere, creating greater instability and more rainfall, but it does not move the jet stream.

I suspect that we are missing a bigger picture here by looking at the sea surface temperatures in the El Nino location in isolation, without considering the overall warming of the Pacific Ocean everywhere both on and below the surface. The effect of El Nino may very well depend on the sst at that location being higher relative to the rest of the ocean, and when it is higher at the same time that the rest of the ocean is also higher it might not have the same effect.

What role, for instance, does the warmer water off the southern California coast play in the rainfall patterns we are seeing now? The past couple years have seen our coastal water temps rise significantly, as southward currents have become less cold. Fish populations are moving north and it might not ought to surprise us that rain is moving south for the same reason.