I agree we are probably missing the bigger picture. There are so many factors (inputs) that affect the weather and climate that it is very difficult to point to any one input (temps in the Tropical Nino regions) and say that this causes that. However tropical Pacific temps and convection probably are the biggest factor in West Coast rainy season weather. I suspect that in the long run we will look back and see some of the connections with the changes in the Pacific.
The Pacific Ocean along the entire West Coast is extremely warm and has been since at least last spring/summer. Running anywhere from 1 to 4 degrees Celsius above normal (average) along the coast and west well out to sea. Here in the Pacific Northwest that has been reflected in warmer temps on the western sides of the states that closely mirror the + sea surface differences. Warm muggy nights and higher humidities. I know that a climate scientist at the University of Washington I talked to a couple of months ago agrees with the relationship.
Also, it looks to me like we may have switched to a Positive + PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in the last year as well, how does that add in? Last time this happened was 1976-77 and anyone that was on the West Coast and old enough to remember, remembers how dry that winter was across the entire West Coast. This would have been a very short negative (-) period, which is generally good for snowfall, water resources, and fish in the NW, and less so for Alaska. For those reading who don't know, a description of the PDO: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ or here: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PDO.html
We are looking at things based on our historical knowledge but with Global Warming are entering into uncharted waters. What will our climate and weather patterns look like in 5, 10, 50 years compared to today?
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