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2016 Postmortem

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

3. They're basing their predictions on their findings, including that NH voters are influenced by IA

Reply to dsc (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 14, 2016, 03:09 PM

Jan 2016

As their model sees Iowa as a Clinton won, that influence spreads to NH. If Clinton loses Iowa, the model will not be nearly as bullish on her in NH.

As someone who makes models, I can say with confidence that they will be tinkering with the model levers as information comes in that shows what was predictive and what wasn't. Best thing to do is consider their new primary prediction model as being in beta but visible to the public.

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Today's 538 2016 Primary Forecasts: Iowa-Hillary-82%, Bernie-18% / NH-Hillary-57%, Bernie-43% [View all] Alfresco Jan 2016 OP

I am not in Silver's league dsc Jan 2016 #1

I leave the analysis to them. I just post the numbers. Alfresco Jan 2016 #2

It's a pathetic attempt to stop the momentum for Bernie. Looks to me like 538's in the tank for Hill reformist2 Jan 2016 #14

They're basing their predictions on their findings, including that NH voters are influenced by IA Godhumor Jan 2016 #3

It was 73% just YESTERDAY Number23 Jan 2016 #4

538: just another even number sonofspy777 Jan 2016 #5

The year he became the laughing stock of the polling community. wilsonbooks Jan 2016 #8

Bwahahaha! Best joke I've heard all day! Fearless Jan 2016 #6

Doesn't that come across as the slightest bit optimistic? DFW Jan 2016 #7

That's not support percentages but likelihood of winning Recursion Jan 2016 #10

Plainly a test of power...based on whether opinion at 538 creates reality HereSince1628 Jan 2016 #9

Nate pulls his predictions John Poet Jan 2016 #11

Omit Gravis because they are way off Rosa Luxemburg Jan 2016 #12

or does Nate think this is the Powerball? Rosa Luxemburg Jan 2016 #13

How's the anti Hillary, Jim Webb doing? jfern Jan 2016 #15