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SaintPete

(533 posts)
14. I think this poll is a joke
Thu Jan 12, 2012, 11:44 PM
Jan 2012

Here are the demographics:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/fl/fl01102012_demos.doc

You'll see that the poll claims it has a MoE of +/- 2.6%, with 1412 voters surveyed.

But dig deeper and you'll find some weird figures...

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Republican: 32% / 498
Democrat: 29% / 376
Independent: 32% / 450
Other/DK/NA 8% / 88


According to the above, the poll included 32% Republicans, and only 29% Democrats - but when we actually do they math ourselves, the numbers look very different. (489/1412 = 35% Repubs, 376/1412 = 26% Dems). A partisan split of 35 has tripled into a partisan split of 9%. No wonder the republicans are doing better in this poll. The pollster writes it off as "weighted" results, but never explains how the results were weighted, so there's no way to verify if the weighting process is rational.


RACE
White (non-hisp): 71% / 1162
Black (non-hisp): 12% / 105
Hispanic (all races): 13% / 99
Other/DK/NA: 4% / 46


Same problem here...the same weighting process is applied, so the numbers given appear more representative of the population than they actually are--
1162 Whites polled is NOT 71% (1162 / 1412 = 82%)
105 Blacks is not 12%, it's 7.4%
99 Hispanics polled is not 13%, it's 7.0%

Funny... the weighted statistics for the poll look as if they were contrived so as to match true voter demographics. Why is the process for weighted statistics not given? why are white and Republicans so heavily favored in this poll?

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