Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(101,604 posts)

15. Reagan Would Have The Same Problem As Rmoney

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 10:36 AM

Sep 2012

Last edited Sat Sep 22, 2012, 12:43 PM - Edit history (1)

Attracting black, brown, and Asian voters as well as socially liberal, college educated persons, and single women. They were a much smaller percentage of the electorate then.

Ron Brownstein of the National Journal wrote an article where he demonstrated if the 1984 election had the same demographic make up as the 2008 election Reagan's 1984 59-41 landslide becomes a modest 52-48 win and he certainly isn't winning CA or NY.

BTW, somebody needs to plug in the numbers but I think Carter could have eked out a plurality win or come really close in 1980 with today's electorate...

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

24 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Rasmussen: Romney May Be the End of the Line for the Republican Establishment [View all] TroyD Sep 2012 OP

Wow. Sounds like Raz may be throwing in the towel. DCBob Sep 2012 #1

I was surprised by the Ras PA poll TroyD Sep 2012 #3

Me too. DCBob Sep 2012 #4

This is where Howard Dean and BHO came from quaker bill Sep 2012 #2

Interesting... DCBob Sep 2012 #5

That was Reagan's main strength TroyD Sep 2012 #7

Yes indeed. DCBob Sep 2012 #12

Bingo. Drunken Irishman Sep 2012 #24

Scott Rasmussen is dreaming of a "21st century Ronald Reagan" Kolesar Sep 2012 #6

Yes Cosmocat Sep 2012 #8

All cons have a pipe dream of a reincarnated Reagan to lead them to victory. DCBob Sep 2012 #13

what Rasmussen means is that far-right, tea party type Republicans will dominate ..I think he is Douglas Carpenter Sep 2012 #9

stick a fork in romney. make that two forks. buzzman Sep 2012 #10

It is all pure and unmitigated BULLSHIT Cosmocat Sep 2012 #11

He pretty much guarantees that the 2016 GOP primaries will be 2012 redux magical thyme Sep 2012 #14

Reagan Would Have The Same Problem As Rmoney DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2012 #15

Yep, the demographic shifts are largely responsible for making many states fujiyama Sep 2012 #20

I Have As Much Chance As Becoming Governor Of CA As Ronald Reagan Would Have If He Was Alive DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2012 #21

This has been my wet dream for a while now smorkingapple Sep 2012 #16

It's Amazing How Few Analysts Realize How Demographic Trends Are Driving This Election DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2012 #17

Republicanism is a fossil trying to exist in the 21st century... and-justice-for-all Sep 2012 #18

So Cain/Bachmann 2016? Please Teabaggers, make it so! nt sufrommich Sep 2012 #19

Post removed Post removed Sep 2012 #22

enjoy your stay. WI_DEM Sep 2012 #23