2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: New CNN Iowa Poll: Bernie 51, Hillary 43, Martin 4 [View all]HassleCat
(6,409 posts)The answer is easy. Sanders. He was never supposed to be close. Sure, he could win New Hampshire, the cuckoo state where the Republicans are all socialists, etc. etc. But the Clinton powerhouse would deal him a fatal blow in Iowa, where party loyalty tips the caucus system heavily against Sanders. If he was stupid enough to keep going, South Carolina would seal the deal. Now all Sanders has to do is come close in Iowa, and he gets a new lease on life. If he wins, the whole ball game changes dramatically. Clinton absolutely must knock him out in South Carolina, and it's looking less and less likely every day.
If Clinton can come out of Iowa with a 60/35/5 win, she's good to go. Anything closer than suggests she's vulnerable, and her whole deal is appearing invulnerable.