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2016 Postmortem

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)

37. Silver had Jeb! as "inevitable" and Trump as "inconceivable." It's not that he's wrong; it's just

Reply to TheBlackAdder (Reply #26)

Tue Jan 26, 2016, 09:56 AM

Jan 2016

that he's offering a snapshot in time and this picture evolves as new data comes in. New data is coming in and Silver's model will narrow (because of the way Silver values endorsements, Sanders will always be Silver's underdog, but Silver will show the race tightening).

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Brand New ARG poll in Iowa: Sanders 48%; Clinton 45%; O'Malley 3% (S 55%; C 38%; O 3% in 18-49 demo) [View all] Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 OP

ARG is biased for Bernie. With the margin of error, Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #1

You can't give her the entire MOE and say she is ahead. Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #7

Not in the two sub-groups identified in the OP Goblinmonger Jan 2016 #12

I see how you might want to cling to that, but compare ARG to the other live phone polls: Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #13

Thanks for that thoughtful reply. Most illuminating. eom Betty Karlson Jan 2016 #21

Excellent breakdown!!! draa Jan 2016 #27

Very nice summary. nt thereismore Jan 2016 #29

ARG is a crummy pollster KingFlorez Jan 2016 #2

If ARG was right, Coo Coo Ernst would not be a Senator right now. Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #6

I guess you prefer Opinion Research Corp which had Sanders up by 8% or Quinnipiac with Sanders up 5% Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #15

If Nate Silver was always right, Donald Trump would have dropped out by now. nt TheBlackAdder Jan 2016 #26

Silver had Jeb! as "inevitable" and Trump as "inconceivable." It's not that he's wrong; it's just Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #37

Most polls and ALL trendlines are for Bernie. senz Jan 2016 #3

Naturally. Most polls and ALL trendlines are biased for Bernie. closeupready Jan 2016 #4

Yes, Hill fans flocked to this thread to tell us just that. senz Jan 2016 #9

exactly! Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #36

Not a good track record for ARG. hrmjustin Jan 2016 #5

Truth is, caucuses are by their nature tough to poll. TDale313 Jan 2016 #10

Forcast is for snow so that will also be a factor. hrmjustin Jan 2016 #11

By all means -- pray for snow. We Democrats always want to suppress the vote! Right? Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #14

Are you freaking kidding me? hrmjustin Jan 2016 #16

If you were not hoping for a reduced turn out, I withdraw the comparison. If you were hoping for a Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #17

Where the hell was I hoping? hrmjustin Jan 2016 #18

I await your response to this poster below. hrmjustin Jan 2016 #24

I presume that poster also inferred from the context that you were glad for the forecast of snow. If Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #32

You presume the poster is being sarcastic but jumped on me and called me rove. hrmjustin Jan 2016 #33

I own an all-wheel drive vehicle... DaGimpster Jan 2016 #19

Glad you are helping out. hrmjustin Jan 2016 #25

GOOD! That should keep the OLD PEOPLE at HOME! John Poet Jan 2016 #22

Really? hrmjustin Jan 2016 #23

It's really the COLD that'll keep me in. John Poet Jan 2016 #30

You want old people to stay home and not vote? hrmjustin Jan 2016 #31

If I could pick who actually votes in Iowa? John Poet Jan 2016 #34

I didn't find the humor in it. hrmjustin Jan 2016 #35

GO BERNIE! in_cog_ni_to Jan 2016 #8

HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!! WillyT Jan 2016 #20

K+R!!! draa Jan 2016 #28

Figures that most Clinton supporters are old people. Odin2005 Jan 2016 #38