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mythology

(9,527 posts)
25. You didn't read the entire article did you?
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:21 PM
Jan 2016

Here's a rather important part:

“It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night,” said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."

This crowing that you're doing, is at best premature given that the very same article includes that it's within the margin of error. It's also premature in that any given poll has a confidence level and so in theory this could be one of the polls that takes an inaccurate sample of the overall electorate. 3% is a really small margin for error even if it is right and you would need to win over at least some of the O'Malley supporters if his numbers are accurate.

That's not what I just saw: Bernie 51%, Hillary 39% <-- Is this not correct? n/t 99th_Monkey Jan 2016 #1
Apparently not TSIAS Jan 2016 #2
When I first tuned into the live announcement those numbers were up on the screen 99th_Monkey Jan 2016 #8
It was the cares about people like you number. Renew Deal Jan 2016 #16
Ahh. Helpful to know. Thank you. nt 99th_Monkey Jan 2016 #31
WORK HARDER BERNITES. CAN'T LET THE ESTABLISHMENT WIN! Fawke Em Jan 2016 #3
+10000 nt 99th_Monkey Jan 2016 #9
Makes me sick. Fawke Em Jan 2016 #4
Ahhhhhh DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #10
You win - my son gets killed. Fawke Em Jan 2016 #61
I don't even know how to respond... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #62
Not killed by her, directly. Fawke Em Jan 2016 #64
You are about the fifth Sanders supporter to insult and patronize me today. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #66
Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #70
YES! Iliyah Jan 2016 #5
YES!! workinclasszero Jan 2016 #6
That is a dead heat. All within MOE. retrowire Jan 2016 #7
I am too busy Twisting to respond. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #12
Turnout, turnout, turnout. Fawke Em Jan 2016 #63
WOOOHOOO!!! lunamagica Jan 2016 #11
We were told by the Sanders supporters Ann Selzer was the Babe Ruth of polling... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #13
So predictable and expected. Let's just enjoy this lunamagica Jan 2016 #17
I was told she was the Michael Jordan of polling and her word is golden. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #21
She didn't pick Bernie...so she's now more like Michael (mike) Lookinland from lunamagica Jan 2016 #30
They found a little room under the bus ismnotwasm Jan 2016 #46
"This board badly needs a dancing banana!" Number23 Jan 2016 #68
That's it! YAY! lunamagica Jan 2016 #69
Do you not understand what a Margin of Error is? DefenseLawyer Jan 2016 #22
Do you not understand she's ahead in this golden poll FloridaBlues Jan 2016 #35
She's ahead by 3 and there's a MOE of 4 DefenseLawyer Jan 2016 #37
Sir or madame, DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #44
There's really nothing to argue about DefenseLawyer Jan 2016 #47
The margin of error is theoretical... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #49
"That's a tie..." brooklynite Jan 2016 #51
Here are the takeaways... brooklynite Jan 2016 #53
Statistically it's seen as a tie DefenseLawyer Jan 2016 #56
No need to patronize me, sir or madame... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #40
It's actually 4 not 3 DefenseLawyer Jan 2016 #43
You didn't read the entire article did you? mythology Jan 2016 #25
Bernie folks got some funny math skills workinclasszero Jan 2016 #27
No. Statistics tells us they are tied. You know that. Ed Suspicious Jan 2016 #36
Woohoo! ucrdem Jan 2016 #14
You mean, you're "a-samin'" coz she's the same ole, same ole. Fawke Em Jan 2016 #65
dd O'Malley's 3% to Sanders and you get bkkyosemite Jan 2016 #15
If that makes you feel better please run with it./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #18
I would not count on that at all. sadoldgirl Jan 2016 #34
And SENATOR Sanders isn't as much a part of the establishment elleng Jan 2016 #38
Congrats, Hillary supporters. Glad you finally got some good news. But we all know... dinkytron Jan 2016 #19
Living changes day by day, nothing stays the same Iliyah Jan 2016 #26
I'm not sure showing a lead within the MOE is "calling it for Hillary" DefenseLawyer Jan 2016 #20
I agree. It is better to be ahead in the last five polls than behind. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #24
Well we won't have to wait long to find out DefenseLawyer Jan 2016 #33
My wife was out canvassing our precinct here in Des Moines today... DaGimpster Jan 2016 #23
I think they are more concerned about their party. Iliyah Jan 2016 #28
The comment she got from the R's who were going to come caucus D was DaGimpster Jan 2016 #32
DU rec...nt SidDithers Jan 2016 #29
I can only imagine the nasty emails the pollster is getting KingFlorez Jan 2016 #39
I hope she doesn't have a Facebook page! Bleacher Creature Jan 2016 #41
Swarming feel the Bern attack workinclasszero Jan 2016 #45
What's the margin of error? Most likely it's a virtual tie. Vinca Jan 2016 #42
4 Ed Suspicious Jan 2016 #48
The 'gold standard'? Who told you to say that? elias49 Jan 2016 #50
This distinguished gentleman. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #54
Bernie Sanders is running an AWESOME campaign and the proof is in the poll LOL! nc4bo Jan 2016 #52
Dewey Beats Truman! NowSam Jan 2016 #55
Great numbers! Within the MOE and leaves MOM numbers. morningfog Jan 2016 #57
kick! NurseJackie Jan 2016 #58
Good enough for me! DCBob Jan 2016 #59
Propaganda. Cute. It's within the MOE cali Jan 2016 #60
Game over after Super Tuesday. On that, no polling authority needed oasis Jan 2016 #67
Ridiculous- how can you 'call it' before it's even begun? Eom Karma13612 Jan 2016 #71
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