2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: GOLD STANDARD IOWA POLLSTER- Ann Selzer, calls it for Hillary!!! -HRC 45% SBS 42% MOM 3% [View all]mythology
(9,527 posts)Here's a rather important part:
It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night, said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.
The results are within the polls margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."
This crowing that you're doing, is at best premature given that the very same article includes that it's within the margin of error. It's also premature in that any given poll has a confidence level and so in theory this could be one of the polls that takes an inaccurate sample of the overall electorate. 3% is a really small margin for error even if it is right and you would need to win over at least some of the O'Malley supporters if his numbers are accurate.