Internal Iowa Polling Must Be EXTREMELY Good for Bernie

[Drunken Irishman]

26. No.

Bernie needs Iowa like Obama needed Iowa. Had Obama lost Iowa in 2008 he would've lost the nomination. It offered him up proof that he could take on, and beat, Hillary Clinton. Even with the loss in New Hampshire, he was still a far more viable candidate nationally than the day before the Iowa Caucus. Hillary came in third in Iowa in '08 and still took Obama to the wire in a primary process that was extremely close.

What Bernie risks with an Iowa defeat is the idea solidifying around Clinton being inevitable. It almost entirely sets up a no-win situation in NH for Bernie. If he wins, it's expected - but if he loses, or the margins are much more narrower, then they'll further write off his campaign.

Iowa offers him the first break from the expected. Look at it like the NBA playoffs. There's a saying that the series truly doesn't begin until the road team wins a game. Iowa is Hillary's home court and NH is Bernie's. The problem here is that the status quo, like the home team winning every game in a series (inevitably, they'll ultimately win the series with this pattern) will fail Bernie if he doesn't steal a state.

After NH is the Nevada Caucus. Hillary has a built-in advantage among Hispanic voters who'll make up a huge number of caucus goers just like in 2008 (and they delivered the state to Hillary). Then there's South Carolina, which, again, is a state built more for Hillary and one she leads overwhelmingly. Now, I do expect many of these states to possibly narrow but the problem is now we're dealing with just weeks - not months like the lead-up to Iowa/NH.

Then comes Mini Super Tuesday. By that point, Hillary could have monumental momentum. If she loses Iowa, though, things change.

But look at the Mini Super Tuesday states:

Seven of the Twelve states are in the South/Midwest (Oklahoma).

Those are not favorable Bernie states.