2016 Postmortem

MineralMan

(150,556 posts)

3. That final delegate count will almost certainly change

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 11:56 AM

Feb 2016

by the end of the Iowa state convention. It's still a virtual tie. Clinton appears to have a slight edge, but that will really be erased by the time of the Democratic nominating convention. The numbers from Iowa are simply too small to make a difference in the outcome, and the difference between the two candidates' results are negligible in the mass of delegates to that convention.

Nothing wrong with ties, though. It certainly makes the rest of the primary season a little more interesting.

Hillary will still come out the winner, though. She will still be the Democratic nominee. I cannot see any other path to the convention, really.

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All Iowa Precincts Reporting [View all] JaneyVee Feb 2016 OP

Doesn't look like a tie to me either. NurseJackie Feb 2016 #1

Even my old tired eyes are seeing 28-21. :-) Alfresco Feb 2016 #11

28 includes supers which she had in her pocket. So she declared victory before the popular vote leveymg Feb 2016 #18

Yep. Anyone posting "28-21!" without clarification is basically trying to mislead. reformist2 Feb 2016 #20

... Alfresco Feb 2016 #29

Some of Hillary's supporters do tend to follow her lead. Broward Feb 2016 #41

Precinct 42 hasn't reported and Sanders won there. kristopher Feb 2016 #43

And obfuscate. Stick a fork in Hillary. She's done. - nt KingCharlemagne Feb 2016 #57

The Socialist is still in the running? RobertEarl Feb 2016 #22

Which is funny because even if they say they're voting for her Fearless Feb 2016 #32

Looks Like Clinton Won by a Touchdown and Extra Point Stallion Feb 2016 #23

Looks like she won by a fraction of one percent. 4 votes out of 1400. A pyrrhic victory, at best. leveymg Feb 2016 #28

Superdelegates vote at the convention, this is a dishonest Fearless Feb 2016 #33

MSNBC is showing 30-21 on their live tv graphics. :-) Alfresco Feb 2016 #38

Looks Like Clinton Added a Safety in Overtime Stallion Feb 2016 #63

Well it wasn't a blow out Autumn Feb 2016 #2

Nobody expected it would. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #5

Oh a few here expected it. nt Autumn Feb 2016 #8

Not the realistic ones. Agschmid Feb 2016 #12

Not everyone here on DU is realistic, and a couple posters here expected a huge Hillary win . Autumn Feb 2016 #17

On the Bernie side, yes. DanTex Feb 2016 #24

Comments on a blog saying that Bernie could come in first. It was close. Autumn Feb 2016 #42

Funny how the word "will" gets changed into "could", isn't it? DanTex Feb 2016 #44

Depends on the meaning of the word is doesn't it Dan. Autumn Feb 2016 #47

Well, they do have different meanings. That's why you decided to replace one with the other. DanTex Feb 2016 #48

Ya got me Dan, ya got me. You hillary supporters are some of the most graceful Autumn Feb 2016 #50

That final delegate count will almost certainly change MineralMan Feb 2016 #3

True, barely a blip on total delegate count. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #9

"Who" jham123 Feb 2016 #4

No one really "voted" welcome to land of crazy caucuses. Agschmid Feb 2016 #13

Still seems to be something going on to finalize numbers ... Jarqui Feb 2016 #6

Seems like a huge mess jkbRN Feb 2016 #25

About as close to a tie that has ever been seen in Iowa. Vinca Feb 2016 #7

Yes, because as you guys said ad nauseum, he didn't have "name recognition." MoonRiver Feb 2016 #14

You fail to mention that jkbRN Feb 2016 #30

We can interpret the facts in a number of ways, but Iowa was not an easy state for Hillary to win. MoonRiver Feb 2016 #46

The new goal post moving meme. Fearless Feb 2016 #34

He can in a very close second, a virtual tie in a satate where Autumn Feb 2016 #45

Apparently he lost because of some coin tosses. I wouldn't crow too much. LOL. Vinca Feb 2016 #59

That has been debunked about 20 times today. MoonRiver Feb 2016 #60

Actually, I don't. All I'm saying is Hillary's win was by a hair. Vinca Feb 2016 #62

Um, that is counting superdelegates rather disingenuously. JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #10

Delegates can switch at the next level too 4dsc Feb 2016 #36

Only after the first ballot. jeff47 Feb 2016 #37

Superdelegates are not bound to a candidate. jeff47 Feb 2016 #15

It's a lie is what it is. Fearless Feb 2016 #35

Hear, hear! John Poet Feb 2016 #61

Really a solid night. NCTraveler Feb 2016 #16

She spent a pile of money and damaged her future primary results for a tie. jeff47 Feb 2016 #21

Nicely stated! jkbRN Feb 2016 #27

I don't think she damaged anything down the road. NCTraveler Feb 2016 #40

She pulled money and staff from super Tuesday states. jeff47 Feb 2016 #49

What Is the delegate count out of Iowa? NCTraveler Feb 2016 #52

At the moment, 22-21, 1 unawarded. jeff47 Feb 2016 #54

So, 20ish has brought you to the bold comment... NCTraveler Feb 2016 #56

Do you really think one delegate is going to decide the nomination? jeff47 Feb 2016 #58

49 total delegates? Neat trick... gcomeau Feb 2016 #19

Your numbers include Super Delegates hoosierlib Feb 2016 #26

This map is based on "Clinton trails, Clinton leads" ummmmm jkbRN Feb 2016 #31

MSNBC is showing 30-21 on their live tv graphics. :-) Alfresco Feb 2016 #39

Surprise... Kentonio Feb 2016 #55

excellent arguments for iowa to end their caucus 'system' rurallib Feb 2016 #51

Clinton the clear winner. Maybe by a hair, but still a win. I would concede though, Lil Missy Feb 2016 #53