2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Make your non-snarky NH prediction [View all]bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)DEMOCRATS
I don't see a blowout for Sanders. With the Big Dog on the stump, throwing mud at Sanders, older voters who look back fondly on the Clinton years will come out in droves and that will blunt Sander's apparent strength in the polls. I look for Sanders to hang tough in the stretch and hold off Clinton's charge but it will be closer than his supporters will like unless her surrogates go to far and really, really piss off Sander's supporters.
Sure thing: 2-1 odds. Win or lose, unless it's Sanders by a mile, Hillary will declare victory.
REPUBLICANS
Rank and file New Hampshire Republicans love a rebel and Trump is their kind of guy. Since Kasich is the least damaged of the establishment candidate she should get up for second. Dudley Dooright will hang in for third or even edge the establishment guy for second. Bush and Christie, I think are done for as is Thirsty Boots.
Sure thing: 2-1 odds. Unless he comes in behind Carson Cruz will declare victory.
Longshot pick: 30-1 odds. Evangelicals drop Cruz and propel Carson into the money.
Longshot pick 2: 40-1 Party loyalists will melt at the heartwarming sight of Barbara Bush and rally to her baby boy's side pushing him past Kasich.
Win or lose