2016 Postmortem

demwing

(16,916 posts)

141. Easy answer

Reply to Cheese Sandwich (Reply #113)

Wed Feb 17, 2016, 07:44 PM

Feb 2016

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fivethirtyeight has Bernie pulling ahead in Nevada [View all] UglyGreed Feb 2016 OP

Interesting cali Feb 2016 #1

I was wondering UglyGreed Feb 2016 #3

This flop sweat business Paulie Feb 2016 #18

Yes, Bernie and we are ruining their plans for a third term!! dana_b Feb 2016 #22

LOL amborin Feb 2016 #26

Oh Hell yeah ... Trajan Feb 2016 #2

I wonder why SC is such a big deal. It does not have demographics close to national average. nt thereismore Feb 2016 #25

If Sanders does well in SC, it destroys the meme. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #27

Exactly. That's all he needs. And he's going to get it. nt thereismore Feb 2016 #29

I'm pretty sure he will. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #32

I'm thinking cannabis_flower Feb 2016 #135

I think so too. He'll get within single digit gap in the results. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #138

It would be a very public psychological blow Trajan Feb 2016 #28

It's an early state nxylas Feb 2016 #121

Clinton will not drop before Super Tuesday demwing Feb 2016 #38

You're dreaming, Hillary and the DNC will fight to the end. They know no bottom. Indepatriot Feb 2016 #48

Agreed elljay Feb 2016 #99

The soul of the party really is at stake and for many this election will end their career.... Spitfire of ATJ Feb 2016 #102

It's more likely that the dnc will fight to the end, and it's also likely that they will fight Cal33 Feb 2016 #125

Not until someone has enough delegates. Volaris Feb 2016 #132

"Its happening" me b zola Feb 2016 #4

here ya go UglyGreed Feb 2016 #5

if it's worth showing once... cui bono Feb 2016 #9

Thank you, thank you me b zola Feb 2016 #10

Any time UglyGreed Feb 2016 #16

love that gif, but this one has hands! demwing Feb 2016 #40

That one scares me a little, lol me b zola Feb 2016 #42

it would be nicer if Bernie was similing demwing Feb 2016 #45

Yeah, that one's gonna give me nightmares nt dorkzilla Feb 2016 #46

WooHoo!! Its happening! me b zola Feb 2016 #14

It's ALL happening!! dana_b Feb 2016 #21

Wish I could rec this ms liberty Feb 2016 #119

Go Bernie!!!!! ------> nt ladjf Feb 2016 #6

Yeah, but it doesn't count Matariki Feb 2016 #7

Wonderful news. azmom Feb 2016 #8

Nevada is NOT representative of the country and definitely NOT part of her western firewall. thereismore Feb 2016 #11

They changed that days ago due to Rove's poll KingFlorez Feb 2016 #12

Welcome to the thread! cui bono Feb 2016 #15

And fivethirtyeight can't be knocked by Hillarians since they were proudly stating it was right! cui bono Feb 2016 #13

I think you overestimate the value they put on consistency. (nt) jeff47 Feb 2016 #78

BAM! By Saturday, that will be ever higher! in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #17

Could Nate be pulling our chain? ejbr Feb 2016 #19

Sanders votes have been exceeding polls so far. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #30

No. Nate Silver, for all his flaws, SheilaT Feb 2016 #33

Silver's figure has declined to 69%.... not what you quoted. Nt Land Shark Feb 2016 #118

I obviously looked at an older SheilaT Feb 2016 #120

Makes me feel so so so senz Feb 2016 #20

"Here come bad news talkin' this n that..." me b zola Feb 2016 #34

Based on a single 45/45 poll? vdogg Feb 2016 #23

51/49 is % chance of winning, not a poll. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #36

Another trend is working class independants going heavily to Bernie in the 1st two primaries. yourout Feb 2016 #62

Yes. And day of caucus registration for Dems. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #63

I'm guessing Bernie takes this easily. yourout Feb 2016 #66

That would be my guess. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #67

He should Duckfan Feb 2016 #105

Well, sir, they just adjusted it this morning to 69/31% for Clinton. Maybe because of momentum? George II Feb 2016 #89

538 is weighing the fact that Clinton had huge leads in every poll taken recently stopbush Feb 2016 #37

what the hell is silvers doing weighting that poll so heavy?! uponit7771 Feb 2016 #60

Well, he isn't really giving Sanders an edge at all. stopbush Feb 2016 #69

Whaaaaaat?! I thought Sanders gg in NV and SC was really heavy... that's surprising... uponit7771 Feb 2016 #77

Curious what his numbers with Hispanics are nt firebrand80 Feb 2016 #24

The big number in Vegas is the union number, many of whose members are Hispanic. stopbush Feb 2016 #41

You left out a step. jeff47 Feb 2016 #79

Why wouldn't they follow the leadership? stopbush Feb 2016 #82

Well, so far the unions that actually polled their members back Sanders jeff47 Feb 2016 #83

Do you have a source for that claim? stopbush Feb 2016 #86

The individual endorsements from each union. jeff47 Feb 2016 #87

Not going to bother. If you can't provide the source to back your own stopbush Feb 2016 #91

Yes, you shouldn't waste your beautiful mind on that. jeff47 Feb 2016 #92

Actually, Hillary won union members i Iowa. eom lunamagica Feb 2016 #100

And shey may win them in NV. But IMO we should not assume the membership jeff47 Feb 2016 #101

Of course we shouldn't assume that. But so far, the actual voting lunamagica Feb 2016 #104

In IA, but not in NH. (nt) jeff47 Feb 2016 #106

I am waiting for Saturday's poll to come to any conclusions. Kalidurga Feb 2016 #31

Yeah, that would be the one. JackRiddler Feb 2016 #44

There's a reason HRC cancelled her Florida trip last weekend hoosierlib Feb 2016 #35

Florida is probably safe for her. Closed primary. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #39

Today was the last day to change party affiliation. Fuddnik Feb 2016 #55

Correctomundo. I double checked mine online. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #57

As much as I would like sadoldgirl Feb 2016 #43

Here's hoping he's right azurnoir Feb 2016 #47

Did 538 remove their prediction? dwrjr Feb 2016 #49

Welcome to DU wryter2000 Feb 2016 #103

Thanks from NZ dwrjr Feb 2016 #140

Lucky you! wryter2000 Feb 2016 #144

DWR, take another look. Clinton 69% and Bernie 31%. nt kstewart33 Feb 2016 #130

HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!! WillyT Feb 2016 #50

And boom goes the dynamite and then boom goes all Camp Weathervane's supporter's heads Feeling the Bern Feb 2016 #51

Would love to see Bernie do well saltpoint Feb 2016 #52

we've got to lose that sax solo MisterP Feb 2016 #53

o my god. In that one scene the saltpoint Feb 2016 #56

Did you see that trend line?? SciDude Feb 2016 #54

there's been a lot more about so. car. in the news the last few days 6chars Feb 2016 #58

Go, Bernie GO!! AzDar Feb 2016 #59

51% you might as well call that 50/50 JRLeft Feb 2016 #61

It is in play nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #64

No, 538 doesn't have "Bernie pulling ahead in Nevada". George II Feb 2016 #65

+1 DCBob Feb 2016 #68

They corrected it and have her slightly ahead again 45.2 Clinton to 44.8 Bernie Lucinda Feb 2016 #71

Without that "poll" Clinton would be ahead by at least 27%. Makes me happy..... George II Feb 2016 #74

Well...Republicans can caucus in both primaries - due to some loophole, so I think that's why Lucinda Feb 2016 #75

THIS poll showed Sanders within 4 points in late January. John Poet Feb 2016 #80

Well sir, 538 has now adjusted their chance of Clinton winning to a more realistic 69%. George II Feb 2016 #84

Based on the heavy weight it is giving a poll that shows the race within 1 basselope Feb 2016 #93

This message was self-deleted by its author George II Feb 2016 #81

I wondered if 538 reputation would be important in providing a correction....good!!! Sheepshank Feb 2016 #112

They've been at this game for a long time, they won't do anything to tarnish their reputation. George II Feb 2016 #117

Your subject line is a direct falsehood. Your link says nothing of the sort. eom MohRokTah Feb 2016 #70

It was when I followed the OP's link earlier - but they corrected it and Hillary has the lead again Lucinda Feb 2016 #72

NV is impossible to poll anyway. MohRokTah Feb 2016 #73

Have you seen the article about Reps being able to vote in both the Dem and their own caucuses? Lucinda Feb 2016 #76

Clinton SURGES ahead of Sanders on 538, they now have Clinton with a 69% chance of winning.... George II Feb 2016 #85

Aww Bernie fans haz a sad workinclasszero Feb 2016 #88

Lol vdogg Feb 2016 #97

Yeah, it's looking pretty good for Sanders. basselope Feb 2016 #94

Go Bernie Go! nt Duval Feb 2016 #90

Don't click on that link JohnnyRingo Feb 2016 #95

A Caucus is much more difficult to predict, and from what I have read Nevada is even more difficult still_one Feb 2016 #107

Wha? quakerboy Feb 2016 #96

What is amazing is his polls plus model picked Cruz in IA... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #98

What is amazing quakerboy Feb 2016 #143

There's another post today that says 538 gives Clinton a 69% chance of winning brush Feb 2016 #108

it changed overnight Cheese Sandwich Feb 2016 #109

It changed that much? brush Feb 2016 #111

Yes I saw 538 yesterday they Cheese Sandwich Feb 2016 #113

Easy answer demwing Feb 2016 #141

The pollsters feel obliged to catch up with reality? eom Betty Karlson Feb 2016 #110

Another Misleading Headline peggysue2 Feb 2016 #114

This is fucked up... Helen Borg Feb 2016 #115

The latest Nate Silver projections have Clinton way up on Sanders Gothmog Feb 2016 #116

No new info and projections change... Helen Borg Feb 2016 #122

Not today eviliberal Feb 2016 #123

They must of received word to UglyGreed Feb 2016 #124

they suddenly changed it Robbins Feb 2016 #126

Yep. No new poll but the "polls only" forecast flipped. morningfog Feb 2016 #136

Interesting.... MrWendel Feb 2016 #127

growing.... kgnu_fan Feb 2016 #128

UG, am I misreading the chart? kstewart33 Feb 2016 #129

Very curious as Nate Silver doesn't play games. kstewart33 Feb 2016 #131

I like woody allen movies, but this one has been going on too long. dubyadiprecession Feb 2016 #133

Screw Nate Silver!! What does he know anyway!! lobodons Feb 2016 #134

NOT ANYMORE. It's Clinton with a 69% chance for the win and Sanders at 31% Persondem Feb 2016 #137

New update! Clinton's chance of winning the Nevada caucuses... George II Feb 2016 #139

K&R mvd Feb 2016 #142