2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: I wonder if the Black vote was what sealed the deal [View all]onenote
(45,962 posts)while the Latino vote split 53-45 for Sanders, the AA vote went to Clinton by 76-22.
Given that the white vote, while making up 59% of the voters, split nearly evenly (49 Sanders, 47 Clinton),
it is absolutely clear that it was the AA vote that made the difference for Clinton in NV.
To break it down in simplistic terms: imagine that there were only 1000 voters (and a negligible number were Asian or "other"
.
590 of the voters would be white and they would split 289 for Sanders and 277 for Clinton
190 of the voters would be Latino and the would split 101 for Sanders and 86 for Clinton.
Based on those two groups, Sanders has 390 votes to 353 for Clinton.
But when you add in the 130 AA voters, you add 99 to Clinton's total but only 29 for Sanders.
The end result: 462 for Clinton (52 plus percent) and 419 for Sanders (45 plus percent).
If AA voters can swing the result to Clinton where they make up a smaller percentage of the electorate than Latino voters, they are likely to have a big impact in states where AA populations are greater than Latino populations.
Take my state of Virginia, for example. There are more than twice as many African Americans as there are Latinos: 19.7 v. 8.9. Of course the 6 plus percent Asian vote in Virginia will play an important role, too.