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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: NATE SILVER: "It's possible Bernie Sanders will win every single caucus from here on out" [View all]Igel
(37,621 posts)44. It's possible I'll suffocate in the next second
as all the air molecules in the room randomly wind up in the upper SE corner.
If we just talk possibility, then the best we can say it's highly improbable and not impossible.
As for the caucuses, the data I've seen so far (neither ignoring it nor obsessing about it) shows a lot of variation but even stronger divergence between reality and assumptions. Predictive statistics relies on assumptions.
I'll go with a "he'll win some, he'll lose some." And since my opinion's irrelevant and reality doesn't give a rat's assumption about what I think, and since the events haven't been held yet, I'll be a nice observer and observe while letting my adrenals and para-adrenals rest.
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NATE SILVER: "It's possible Bernie Sanders will win every single caucus from here on out" [View all]
FourScore
Feb 2016
OP
Not in Nevada, nope. That polling was of by 8% or so in total, named Bernie the winner....
bettyellen
Feb 2016
#26
Nope. Look at maps, and do the math. The poll you refer to was completely discredited.
bettyellen
Feb 2016
#30
They're basing that on the entrance poll. The actual results say otherwise.
Metric System
Feb 2016
#33
Politico has a good article on the Sanders' campaign decision to focus on caucuses
Gothmog
Feb 2016
#47