2016 Postmortem

Gothmog

(180,479 posts)

45. From Nate Silver's 538 website-Do not trust match up polls

Reply to Attorney in Texas (Reply #23)

Mon Feb 22, 2016, 02:08 PM

Feb 2016

Look at warning number three

You seem to like citing Nate when he agrees with you.

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DU would would support Clinton if Sanders is denied the nomination; others would support Jill Stein [View all] Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 OP

others Robbins Feb 2016 #1

You can't stay home -- there are races on the ballot besides the Presidency. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #4

given the choices here In Missouri Robbins Feb 2016 #6

Write-in. n/t PonyUp Feb 2016 #51

I will write in Bernie Sanders peacebird Feb 2016 #93

That's my plan, to write-in Bernie's name LemmingWarrior Feb 2016 #94

I had forgotten that Murkows,i won a write in campaign... Interesting.... Very interesting! peacebird Feb 2016 #97

Jill Stein is a very sensible candidate. I am sure many not on DU will support her. JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #2

True. mmonk Feb 2016 #9

Yep bravenak Feb 2016 #39

True,. but she isn't a serious candidate. eridani Feb 2016 #80

She's serious if enough people take her seriously. That's all I'm willing to say here. n/t JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #110

Which will never happen because most voters are not policy junkies n/t eridani Feb 2016 #113

By "denied" I assume you mean "lose" the nomination. DCBob Feb 2016 #3

If Sanders wins less than the majority of voter-allocated delegates than Clinton, he loses. If the Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #7

Which is what is likely to happen... DCBob Feb 2016 #11

Lets see how things stand after South Carolina and Texas Gothmog Feb 2016 #14

I'm looking forward to Mach 22 through April 9 - watch Sanders go 8 for 8! Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #34

How many delegates are in these contests? Gothmog Feb 2016 #42

in a solidly blue state i would likely vote my conscience tk2kewl Feb 2016 #5

As you say. Smarmie Doofus Feb 2016 #20

In solidly red states cannabis_flower Feb 2016 #102

good read tk2kewl Feb 2016 #108

Remember jehop61 Feb 2016 #8

I'm voting for Sanders in the primary and our nominee in the general election, but since Hillary Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #15

13% of Democrats voted for Bush, far more than voted for Nader. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #18

Except for the fact that most of those "Democrats" were really DINOs tarheelsunc Feb 2016 #75

Yes, both Bernie AND Hillary supporters should remember that. (nt) noamnety Feb 2016 #26

Is he running again? Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 #47

There's also the 5% issue at stake noamnety Feb 2016 #10

Absolutely true. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #19

great information. Thank you. liberal_at_heart Feb 2016 #50

Exactly - TBF Feb 2016 #100

Sanders is not more electable-hypothetical match up polls are worthless Gothmog Feb 2016 #12

Keep telling yourself that -- go ahead an ignore poll after poll that says voters think Clinton is Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #23

Do you understand how polling works? Gothmog Feb 2016 #44

Yes, I understand polls. I work with polls as part of my job and in running campaigns. Hypothetical Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #54

Your understanding of these polls is wrong Gothmog Feb 2016 #65

I'll be sure to pass along your thoughts to the two candidates whose campaigns I am running. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #68

From Nate Silver's 538 website-Do not trust match up polls Gothmog Feb 2016 #45

Beware: Someone Is Trying to Convince You That Bernie Can't Win antigop Feb 2016 #99

67% of voters don't view Hillary Clinton as honest and trustworthy Kall Feb 2016 #57

Did you talk to DWS yet? Did you say "HI" and thank her for her moment of candor antigop Feb 2016 #98

What is the count on your Sanders is unelectable meme? Gothmog Feb 2016 #105

You didn't answer my questions. Answer my questions. nt antigop Feb 2016 #106

Sanders, not S-Nader nt geek tragedy Feb 2016 #13

Sanders is NOT going to run as a third party candidate; Jill Stein is. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #16

and once there is a Democratic nominee apparent, it will be a TOS violation to promote her geek tragedy Feb 2016 #17

He's not promoting Stein. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #22

I'm not promoting. How many times do I have to say I will vote for our nominee whether it's Sanders Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #27

while you rattle off talking points about how great she is on the issues. geek tragedy Feb 2016 #28

They are not "talking points" - they are Stein's platform. How can adults discuss Clinton's Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #32

You said adults. artislife Feb 2016 #86

If you're in a solid Red or solid Blue State, knock yourself out... brooklynite Feb 2016 #21

I'm in a large swing state, very narrowly won by Obama in 2012. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #24

Well, that'll teach HER a lesson... brooklynite Feb 2016 #25

I don't see a difference. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #30

So you are prepared to lose the right to privacy, Roe v. Wade and the rest of the Voting Rights Act? Gothmog Feb 2016 #53

How hypocritical. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #55

The Clinton Campaign has one of the best platforms to protect voting rights that I have seen Gothmog Feb 2016 #59

Snap! artislife Feb 2016 #87

Then those people are dipshits. nt Codeine Feb 2016 #31

Burn those bridges, baby! HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #33

They've already made it clear they intend Codeine Feb 2016 #35

Maybe should have thought of that earlier. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #37

Before what, exactly? Codeine Feb 2016 #41

Before the DLC turned their backs on the Traditional Democratic left. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #46

Well said, thanks! nt haikugal Feb 2016 #78

Jill Stein will not win. Clinton will not win either. Sanders is the path toward a Democratic win. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #29

If she were a Democrat, she'd have my vote. But she aint bravenak Feb 2016 #36

Me too. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #38

It's telling that you can't bring yourself to admit Clinton is ahead mythology Feb 2016 #40

I am sure I have posted the words "Clinton is the favorite and Sanders is the underdog" 100 times. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #43

Take a look at this sample ballot from Chicago's 13th ward Art_from_Ark Feb 2016 #82

Get a grip yourself. artislife Feb 2016 #89

would would do you mean some would? Skwmom Feb 2016 #48

By "denied the nomination" you mean "is defeated for the nomination". DavidDvorkin Feb 2016 #49

So-called Democrat, Susan Sarandon would be the first to jump on board. oasis Feb 2016 #52

"So-called Democrat, Susan Sarandon?" I'm sure your "internet-warrior" status has done more to elect Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #69

My worry is the unaffiliated voters who would move from Bernie to Trump. femmedem Feb 2016 #56

there is still a difference between unaffiliated voters who support Trump and those who support liberal_at_heart Feb 2016 #58

This is treading on thin ice on DU but I think you may be correct Armstead Feb 2016 #60

Jill Stein is not a spoiler unless (1) Sanders doesn't win and (2) Clinton is electable but for Stei Vote2016 Feb 2016 #62

If Clinton is the nominee and continues to alienate progressive voters... Armstead Feb 2016 #64

Some people aren't so easily swayed by the "not as bad" pronouncements. Tierra_y_Libertad Feb 2016 #61

Consensus gels that the delegate math is not in Bernie's favor Gothmog Feb 2016 #63

we heard all of that in 2008. Clinton needs a new play book. Vote2016 Feb 2016 #67

Still hoping Bernie will ask Jill or Cynthia McKinney to be his VP. nt Zorra Feb 2016 #66

that would be interesting Vote2016 Feb 2016 #70

That would certainly be History-making...losing all 50 States. brooklynite Feb 2016 #88

Most of Sanders plans are fairy dust and unicorns... Sancho Feb 2016 #71

But Hillary's supporting deporting child refugees back to Honduras to be murdered jfern Feb 2016 #72

That's not the OP, but your premise is also wrong! Sancho Feb 2016 #73

My premise is correct jfern Feb 2016 #74

You wisely backed away from your original premise Renew Deal Feb 2016 #84

Hillary as a champion of women and children artislife Feb 2016 #90

and hillary is offering more of the same policies that are failling us and have been for decades Cobalt Violet Feb 2016 #76

This "no we can't" mantra is why Clinton fails with people under 50. By this Vote2016 Feb 2016 #81

And we know enough from history artislife Feb 2016 #91

Sad to see many so-called "Democrats" making justifications to vote against the party in this thread tarheelsunc Feb 2016 #77

Most Sanders supporters according to polling like Hillary and are happy to vote for her Renew Deal Feb 2016 #85

vote for her if she is the nominee - yes... happy about it? not so much - n/t lapfog_1 Feb 2016 #104

I think it's the way she's handling the campaign LemmingWarrior Feb 2016 #95

Most Sanders supporters who are Dems will support the Dem nominee no matter who it is eridani Feb 2016 #79

And some of us were firmly Democrats artislife Feb 2016 #92

There is another option LemmingWarrior Feb 2016 #96

If Bernie doesn't get the nomination, I see a huge write-in campaign for him. n/t PonyUp Feb 2016 #101

Crafty Renew Deal Feb 2016 #83

Should she be elected I expect to see the same thing as during Obamas first few years JackInGreen Feb 2016 #103

I will unhesitatingly support the Democratic nominee. longship Feb 2016 #107

Me too but Hillary can't possibly win and Jill does have a better platform. Thankfully Sanders will Vote2016 Feb 2016 #112

When you say denied you mean loses right? Renew Deal Feb 2016 #109

If Clinton wins a majority of voter-assigned delegates, that would be a loss. If Sanders wins a Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #111