2016 Postmortem

renate

(13,776 posts)

115. great post! all very well said!

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 11:57 PM

Oct 2012

I especially like the first line of your second paragraph--I think you're absolutely right about the money, the anger, the lack of intellect, and the shameless disregard for the democratic process. If every voter was a deep thinker and every Republican in charge of counting the votes had morals, we wouldn't have a care in the world.

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Hold on to your hats...538 re-elect odds down to 67.9% [View all] regnaD kciN Oct 2012 OP

Shouldn't they have remained stable? TroyD Oct 2012 #1

That's what I was wondering... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #5

No. Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #12

Which, of course, we were all satisfied with in August... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #44

I was Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #61

No, the longer that Romney's boost persists the more relevant it becomes to picking geek tragedy Oct 2012 #14

"Game changer" Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #18

Remains to be seen. nt geek tragedy Oct 2012 #84

Lol. You wish. morningfog Oct 2012 #80

I'd rather be talking about how we're going to take the House. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #85

Right. One debate was responsible for us not taking the House. morningfog Oct 2012 #96

No game changer. ywcachieve Oct 2012 #88

The Obama campaign begs to differ with you. nt geek tragedy Oct 2012 #89

Show me proof, that they beg to differ with me. ywcachieve Oct 2012 #91

Read the national journal article--the debate wiped out the 47% video and the geek tragedy Oct 2012 #106

alright so he did not have the night we wanted. we can't relive the past my friend. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #108

That's not proof that the Pres. Obama campaign agree with all the negativity. ywcachieve Oct 2012 #123

Bullshit. You are just making shit up now. morningfog Oct 2012 #97

That statement right there is a "game changer." Indpndnt Oct 2012 #92

That sucks! hrmjustin Oct 2012 #2

Devastating! Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #3

you people are in for a rude awakening blueknight Oct 2012 #6

I don't need anything... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #11

It's not devistating, it's his model catching up to reality. fearnobush Oct 2012 #40

Elections almost always tighten in October... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #49

Look, just admit Chicago got played...and go from there. Sekhmets Daughter Oct 2012 #78

great post! all very well said! renate Oct 2012 #115

If one debate can change it that much, two more can do the same... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #45

The sky is falling, the sky is falling, the sky is falling... Are you afraid of your own shadow too? RBInMaine Oct 2012 #67

LOL... No fear with me. ywcachieve Oct 2012 #90

"You People"? Generic Brad Oct 2012 #69

Romney's uptick is all ready eroding... CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #109

We'd better hope and pray... BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #117

I hope you are right. Voting has started here in Fl. nt Mojorabbit Oct 2012 #118

Let's not make light of this TroyD Oct 2012 #7

I'll make light of it all I want... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #8

It's not a 2 point drop TroyD Oct 2012 #24

It's a two-point drop... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #31

That's how they measure it! alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #52

We're measuring the total drop from Pre-Debate to Today TroyD Oct 2012 #39

Good for you. I don't. Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #50

ROFL alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #9

You hit it. That is still a great number, it's just not as overwhelming as before. dkf Oct 2012 #83

I don't know why he does not just put helpisontheway Oct 2012 #4

The model is the model. Silver's human analysis is separate. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #10

You're stating opinion as fact. Stop doing that. Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #13

That's straight out of Silver's model. The longer a trend persists, the lower the geek tragedy Oct 2012 #16

No it doesn't... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #27

What is a concerning-troll? hrmjustin Oct 2012 #53

Great post. ywcachieve Oct 2012 #93

I hate to take Greeks side, but look at the electoral map on the 538 site; ChimpersMcSmirkers Oct 2012 #111

Uh huh. Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #114

Not a week yet. Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #15

Exactly... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #19

Gallups seven day tracker is a problem Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #26

Statistically, longer time periods can be useful Godhumor Oct 2012 #35

Also problematic Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #54

But the point of longer time frames is to reduce short term random noise Godhumor Oct 2012 #59

Won't argue. No right answer Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #68

Right, you need a combo of both Godhumor Oct 2012 #74

Tomorrow it's one week. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #28

Unconcerned Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #41

Ahead, but short of 50%. With those undecided not basing their decision on what geek tragedy Oct 2012 #48

Perhaps Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #56

That last statement is REALLY questionable... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #98

Yes and no... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #94

We also heard today that the latest round of swing state internals have returned back to fearnobush Oct 2012 #57

We're in queasy territory. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #82

No candidate had won in recent history from Romney's pre-debate position Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #86

True... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #99

I repudiate anything attributed to an unnamed source at National Journal. n/t grasswire Oct 2012 #66

and the conservative national journal would get the real scoop CitizenPatriot Oct 2012 #103

Plus, his model for convention bounces required more like two weeks... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #38

Nobody really thinks that except you. Chan790 Oct 2012 #120

I think Nate's taken a hit to his credibility over the past week... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #17

Not the way it works, it is a simulation not an opinion Godhumor Oct 2012 #21

I expect a drop to 62-65 percent Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #20

Same. I'll have a post on this later. Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #30

i second your feeling MFM008 Oct 2012 #36

I'm guessing 52-55%, personally... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #95

A bit too low Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #121

This daily plummeting is getting to be kind of a drag. Frumious B Oct 2012 #22

Come on, 85% was unrealistically high Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #23

It's not like it was a prediction of 85% of the VOTE TroyD Oct 2012 #33

I feel so much better tonight... cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #25

Oh my FREAKING GOD WeekendWarrior Oct 2012 #29

We're Doomed! Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #75

Isn't that down like 15 percentage points from a week ago tonight? budkin Oct 2012 #32

Sorry -18.2% budkin Oct 2012 #37

It didn't. We were never that likely Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #42

i don't think it did. Romney got something from the debate but not as much as some... hrmjustin Oct 2012 #47

I'll take those odds Onlooker Oct 2012 #34

Except that Nate has written... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #43

Not to be overly optimistic or anything, but isn't that still a win? LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #46

Good point Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #79

That's a fascinating article. fearnobush Oct 2012 #81

Exactly. Still, I'll take Nate's percentages. It's a good bet. LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #122

Biden needs to give the media something new to talk about Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #51

jesus, you are depending on biden? blueknight Oct 2012 #58

He did a good job in the Palin debate Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #63

Thanks for carrying right wing water ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #76

Not 68%! Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #55

You apparently didn't read above, where a 65% projection of winning essentially means that you're alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #60

You can't get any lower than 65% Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #64

Very obviously - a 65% chance of winning is a 0% chance, while a 35% is a 100% alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #70

Geek Tragedy helpisontheway Oct 2012 #62

Not fair Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #73

Oh just stop this INSANITY. Do you need diapers? Quit pissing yourself over this poll shit. RBInMaine Oct 2012 #65

But Romney has been ahead for 3 whole days! Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #72

Slip slidin' away oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #71

Your attitude sucks. MjolnirTime Oct 2012 #77

Hey, don't shoot the messenger... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #100

Yes, everybody is censoring you alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #104

That's not good. man4allcats Oct 2012 #87

EVERYONE PANIC!!! OBAMA'S ONLY *TWICE* AS LIKELY AS RMONEY TO WIN!!! unblock Oct 2012 #101

Why are American voters so damn wishy-washy? Jamaal510 Oct 2012 #102

... Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #105

Let's see where we're at in a week before we panic. boxman15 Oct 2012 #107

Nate's commentary is up ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #110

That was guru-licious alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #113

I predict President Obama will rebound nicely by this time next week catbyte Oct 2012 #112

Unbelievable... BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #116

The one major flaw with Nate's analysis..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #119

I don't think he misread Pew. FBaggins Oct 2012 #124