Fantasyland [View all]

[angrychair]

A lot is made of Bernie Sanders as a "unicorn, rainbows and fairy dust" candidate. While I think that displays a serious misunderstanding of what is trying to be achieved, that is not my OP today, on the cusp of the SC vote and the impending "Super Tuesday".

The short version is most, if not all, republicans will drag their naked body across a room full of broken glass to vote against HRC in a general election. Many may not like casting a vote for tRump but they sure as hell are not going to let Clinton win. For all the concern about Sanders being a Democratic Socialist, little has been made of the vitriol hate republicans have for Clinton and the turn-out her name on the ticket will generate. The combination of Clinton and tRump have been the major driving factors for cross-over votes for Sanders so far.

You can counter that tRump is a xenophobic, racist asshat, which is true, sadly it won't matter.
He is not filling up 20,000 seat venues and besting every other republican, even in their own home state, with just republicans. The math is not In her favor.

Why?

A vast majority of Independents will not vote for her. They are more atuned to scandals and history (guilty or not) than most and will never vote for her. They may not like everything he says but they also know that none of that ignorant, racist shit is going anywhere either. Then there is the young and at least some Bernie supporters, that have spent the primary season being called childish, naive, ignorant, going to burn in hell, believers in unicorns and fairy dust and so on. Some will still vote, many will not. Why would you want their vote anyway? If they are ignorant and naive, why would you want them as one of your supporters? See how that sword cuts both ways?

For all this chest-thumping about how well she is doing with PoC in the South, with all due respect to my friends in the South, in a general election, that support is insignificant and meaningless to the voter base there. Obama lost the southern states in the general election by double-digits, both times. tRump will win them in a landslide against Clinton, including Florida.

Which leads me to swing states. What states can she hope to carry? Florida is impossible. North Carolina is also impossible. Virginia is impossible. Pennsylvania is unlikely. Ohio is a toss-up. Indiana is impossible. Minnesota is unlikely. Michigan is a toss-up. Nevada is very likely. Unfortunately by the time we get to Nevada, the election is already over.

Why is it different for Sanders? He gets New voters. Young voters. Yes, Black voters. Yes, Hispanic voters. He gets a majority of Independents. Finally, he gets something Clinton will not get, cross-over republicans to vote against tRump, not for Sanders.

Most importantly, with a large republican turn-out against Clinton and voting a straight republican ticket in combination with gerrymandering that is now, more than ever, unlikely to change, we could lose the House and Senate for decades.

This is the cold hard reality.