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2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(101,953 posts)

7. It is better than the 2% her Democratic opponent is showing.

Reply to krawhitham (Reply #3)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 10:27 AM

Feb 2016

But that 2% figure is unintentionally deceptive because it is based on the assumption that her opponent won't be the nominee, and be in position to win the presidency in the first place. It's actually how these markets work. They are predicting events that are predicated on other events occurring.

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Hillary Clinton is at 96% to win the nomination, 62% to win the presidency at predictwise [View all] DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 OP

Those numbers have really moved Gothmog Feb 2016 #1

I am more impressed with the 62% figure. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #4

K&R! stonecutter357 Feb 2016 #2

Only 62% to beat Trump, my lord that is scary krawhitham Feb 2016 #3

If Hillary won by 62% in the GE that would be an enormous landslide victory auntpurl Feb 2016 #5

Obama won by 3.9% and the betting odds were 70-30 krawhitham Feb 2016 #10

Apologies, I should have said Obama won 51% of the vote. nt auntpurl Feb 2016 #13

It is better than the 2% her Democratic opponent is showing. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #7

And there you have it! NurseJackie Feb 2016 #9

I fear if Dems aren't turning out Now fredamae Feb 2016 #6

In layman's terms these predictive markets are based on polls, voter expectations surveys... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #8

Sure the predictwise site is headed up by a RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #11

K & R Alfresco Feb 2016 #12