Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

dennis4868

(9,774 posts)

10. I think...

Reply to Mass (Reply #7)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 01:34 PM

Oct 2012

that first debate hurt Obama much more than we think. I know I will get bashed here for saying that. Take it easy on me...I have been a DUer since DU opened its doors. I'm not some troll. But Obama did not look presidential and Romney got a lot of people to believe his lies and flip flops. My feeling is, Obama may lose the popularity vote but win the election because he will most likely take Ohio (assuming Obama wins all his Blue states).

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

40 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Gallup 10/12/12: Romney 49 (+1) Obama 47 (-) LV [View all] dennis4868 Oct 2012 OP

Obama is up +2 in Registered Voters, still a 7 day rolling so includes last Friday budkin Oct 2012 #1

grrrrrrrrr woolldog Oct 2012 #2

it won't be till next week that we see the Biden Bump. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #3

We shouldnt' have to wait that long. FBaggins Oct 2012 #13

True, last Friday will drop out, but... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #28

Is it time yet for a bump due to the unemployment rate going down? treestar Oct 2012 #16

There was no bump for good jobs report VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #21

This message was self-deleted by its author darkangel218 Oct 2012 #27

The "fixed" job numbers story got all the play budkin Oct 2012 #31

Yes there was. FBaggins Oct 2012 #35

Also the numbers were released on a Friday before holiday VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #37

Hedline brush Oct 2012 #4

why? dennis4868 Oct 2012 #6

Because LV is based on the pollster's 'opinion' Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #33

Thanks, I've been trying to point that out. the LV thing is a polling ASSUMPTION. progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #40

Looks like o underperformed Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #5

What is even more puzzling is that they dropped the data for 10/4 (the day after the debate) Mass Oct 2012 #7

It makes sense because polls have noise neverland_pirate Oct 2012 #8

Wasn't 10/4 the day OF the debate? Blaukraut Oct 2012 #9

nvm, in was the day after the debate n/t Blaukraut Oct 2012 #11

No, it was the 3rd. Mass Oct 2012 #12

I think... dennis4868 Oct 2012 #10

I dont disagree. Mass Oct 2012 #14

Some Folks Were Comparing The Debate To A Black Swan Event DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #32

What hurt even more than Obama's debate performance... WI_DEM Oct 2012 #19

I agree... dennis4868 Oct 2012 #23

Gallup didn't show a big drop in that Thursday's numbers... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #30

This is why we're not out of the woods yet TroyD Oct 2012 #15

For some reason I think Wed this week was a bad day for Obama WI_DEM Oct 2012 #17

Thanks for your concern n/t neverland_pirate Oct 2012 #20

Just keep trolling! fugop Oct 2012 #24

I Don't Know Why The Mods Permit It DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #25

Post removed Post removed Oct 2012 #38

Thumbs up! Obama is going to win this damn election! He already is! writes3000 Oct 2012 #18

Remember, though... RedSpartan Oct 2012 #22

But How Did The President Bump Up To 50-45 The Other Day With Those Included? DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #26

He might have had a couple really good days right before the debate. boxman15 Oct 2012 #34

Exactly. Look at the RV trend ProSense Oct 2012 #36

I'll take those numbers Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #29

Folks do NOT be fooled by the Likely Voter thing. It's a different methodology than earlier polls. progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #39