ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE

[johnlucas]

29. You might wanna read this: "History says be skeptical of presidential polls"

I use polls for toilet paper to put it euphemistically.

The media is invested in a "horse race".
Reality doesn't care with the media wants.

History says be skeptical of presidential polls

Some excerpts for ya.

Both Gallup and The American Presidency project provide handy looks at polling and results from previous presidential elections. Often, the final polls were pretty close to the final outcomes, but there have been far too many cases of polling being notably off the mark, as well as instances of elections changing rather dramatically in the final weeks.

In 2008, the final Gallup poll of likely voters put Obama at 53 percent and John McCain at 42 percent. Obama won 52.6 percent to 46.0 percent. Spot on with Obama, but underestimating McCain by four points.

Back in 1940, the last poll (of adults) on Oct. 31 had President Franklin Roosevelt leading Republican Wendell Willkie by a mere47 percent to 45 percent. FDR wound up winning big, by 54.7 percent to 44.8 percent. A similar phenomenon occurred in 1944, with a Nov. 3 poll putting FDR up by only 48 percent to 47 percent versus Thomas Dewey. FDR again won by a rather handy 53.4 percent to 45.9 percent.

Check it.

As for elections shifting in the late stages, in 2000, an Oct. 6 poll had George W. Bush at 48 percent and Al Gore at 41 percent, and as late as Oct. 26, Bush was up among likely voters in the Gallup poll by 52 percent to 39 percent. Again, the final vote was Gore 48.4 percent and Bush 47.9 percent.

Most dramatic, on Oct. 27, 1980, Gallup had President Jimmy Carter beating Ronald Reagan by 45 percent to39 percent. Of course, Reagan won by 50.7 percent to 41.0 percent.

And in 1976, the Gallup poll on Oct. 30 had President Gerald Ford at
47 percent and Jimmy Carter at 46 percent. Carter won 50.1 percent to 48.0 percent.

I leave you with this last line from article author Raymond J. Keating.

The big lesson? Don’t be surprised if things diverge, perhaps quite markedly, on Election Day compared to what even the most recent polls communicate, never mind polls taken a month away from when people actually cast their ballots.

John Lucas

P.S.: Remember that Dewey Defeated Truman.