2016 Postmortem

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

12. The bandwagon effect and horse race coverage is a self-sustaining cycle.

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:50 PM

Oct 2012

Campaigns that are winning get described as winning. If you're winning, that improves your press coverage, people's estimation of you, etc. everyone loves a winner, and people want to be on the winning team.

In contrast, if you're losing, you get questions like "why are you losing" and "what are you going to change, given that what you're doing doesn't work.". In campaigns, then donations dry up, supporters get demoralized, etc.

That's the really awful thing about that debate---Romney was on the ropes, and we could have knocked him out. Instead, our guy hit the canvas.

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Polls: it's all about inertia [View all] andym Oct 2012 OP

Mondale cut Reagan's lead by 7 points only to lose those gains in the end. Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #1

I am hoping that Romney is like Mondale of 1984 andym Oct 2012 #2

A 5 point win would be excellent at this point. Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #3

Unfalsifiable bullshit. bemildred Oct 2012 #4

OP is spot on Cosmocat Oct 2012 #5

Ah, you have faith, how nice. nt bemildred Oct 2012 #6

Not sure what good sticking your head in the sand does Cosmocat Oct 2012 #7

Bald assertions of onmiscience deserve bald assertions of error. bemildred Oct 2012 #8

Says Cosmocat Oct 2012 #9

Please see post #8. nt bemildred Oct 2012 #10

It's not physics, but the inertial hypothesis is quite falsifiable in specific cases andym Oct 2012 #11

The bandwagon effect and horse race coverage is a self-sustaining cycle. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #12

Right, like a twig in the current. bemildred Oct 2012 #13

Some races are like that. Others get away. nt geek tragedy Oct 2012 #14

Right, but how do you know until it happens? bemildred Oct 2012 #15