2016 Postmortem

LisaL

(47,420 posts)

66. If he could maintain his current level of support he would win by a much larger margine.

Reply to TroyD (Reply #42)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:36 PM

Oct 2012

Early voters are heavily in his favor.
Of course no one expects he could win by that much.

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Obama 51-46 in Ohio (PPP) leads 76-24 with 19% early voters!!!! [View all] WI_DEM Oct 2012 OP

Very good news. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #1

Boom goes the dynamite. RedSpartan Oct 2012 #2

Ohio is a Obama firewall WI_DEM Oct 2012 #6

Am I wrong with this? RedSpartan Oct 2012 #21

good observation. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #28

If the dice roll exactly as the poll is showing then your math would be correct. titaniumsalute Oct 2012 #32

yes if the numbers hold. I think they will. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #58

I haven't voted yet (Ohio) CitizenLeft Oct 2012 #106

The key factor are the following: LiberalFighter Oct 2012 #108

Woot!! octoberlib Oct 2012 #3

i knew Ohio MFM008 Oct 2012 #4

fabulous! amborin Oct 2012 #5

But does this mean Romney appears to be leading in Ohio NOW? TroyD Oct 2012 #7

Obama's crushing him in the early vote Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #11

yes, if you read the tweets at the link WI_DEM Oct 2012 #12

My goodness! fugop Oct 2012 #13

Malarkey! TroyD Oct 2012 #16

Good question. Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #15

2 out of 10 Ohio voters have voted and overwhelmingly for Obama WI_DEM Oct 2012 #19

'would probably mean that a majority of those who haven't voted may support Romney' TroyD Oct 2012 #39

Troy, the ANSWER is in the final numbers from PPP! Romney would have to win more than 56% writes3000 Oct 2012 #17

Thanks for the info TroyD Oct 2012 #35

Do we know if the 19% means likely or eligible voters? Applan Oct 2012 #45

It's probably somewhere in between Likely Voters percentages and Registered voters, right? writes3000 Oct 2012 #60

Since they already voted I imagine they are counted as likely voters. LisaL Oct 2012 #65

51-46 NOW treestar Oct 2012 #80

Oh shit Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #8

Good. Better than I expected. Blaukraut Oct 2012 #9

sweet news!! mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #10

you're welcome, and yes, very welcome news. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #14

Best polling news since... that poll with Obama leading Arizona! tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #18

I see Nate thinks that is an 'outliar' but I'm not so sure. Latinos are voting 77-10 for Obama in WI_DEM Oct 2012 #22

Nate...Nate...Nate... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #91

Thanks goodness teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #20

And this poll is an improvement for Obama since their last poll in late September WI_DEM Oct 2012 #24

Wonderful News! trayfoot Oct 2012 #23

Obama has never been Behind in Ohio has he ? JI7 Oct 2012 #25

Well teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #29

Yes, at least for this year, I believe, it has been a firewall state for him WI_DEM Oct 2012 #30

i think your righ MFM008 Oct 2012 #31

Here is the full breakdown of OH (excluding current PPP poll) teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #33

thanks, not surprisingly 'We Ask America', 'ARG' & 'Gravis' are the only ones for Romney WI_DEM Oct 2012 #37

Exactly teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #43

I agree if we get an 'on' President Obama it is possible that the campaign could WI_DEM Oct 2012 #46

And don't forget that Gravis was outed as a fraud by our own Grantcart Snarkoleptic Oct 2012 #93

Why is that I'm always wary of any polling organization....... Applan Oct 2012 #51

Auto Bailout Factor: TroyD Oct 2012 #26

Also I notice in the poll maryellen99 Oct 2012 #27

Note, too, that this PPP Ohio sample was +4 democratic compared to +8 Dem in '08 exit polls. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #34

Excellent! FBaggins Oct 2012 #36

The BOSS and First Lady in Cleveland on Monday Tribetime Oct 2012 #38

Very good, and then the President on Wednesday. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #40

Oh, and this time really: Fuck Nate Silver Blaukraut Oct 2012 #41

I'm not sure teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #47

Actually, I think that's a positive tweet from Nate writes3000 Oct 2012 #48

Ok, good point. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #50

His second tweet says he hasn't made up his mind about that yet. My point is... Blaukraut Oct 2012 #52

I don't get that sense at all. He's saying his numbers suggest Dem enthusiasm... writes3000 Oct 2012 #56

your right! MFM008 Oct 2012 #61

I've been questioning the LV models - see this from Florida Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #62

I don't know why he is trying to pooh-pooh early voting polls, did he do that in 2008? WI_DEM Oct 2012 #49

writing for the NYT MFM008 Oct 2012 #53

I don't think it would be fair to question his doubts. FBaggins Oct 2012 #69

So Obama can still win OHIO by 5-6 points? TroyD Oct 2012 #42

If he could maintain his current level of support he would win by a much larger margine. LisaL Oct 2012 #66

Interesting result from PPP on the VP DEBATE: TroyD Oct 2012 #44

yes, I saw that. Very good. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #55

Biden is the man BeyondGeography Oct 2012 #68

Let Biden bounce begin! LisaL Oct 2012 #71

That'll cue Gravis Marketing to parachute in with their own poll so they can fuck with the averages bluestateguy Oct 2012 #54

I wouldn't doubt that! WI_DEM Oct 2012 #59

THIS JUST IN!!! regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #70

LOL! WI_DEM Oct 2012 #72

And, just so people don't misunderstand the "sarcasm" tag... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #73

Oh, geektragedy!!! You were sharing PPP's early warning everywhere.. writes3000 Oct 2012 #57

hehe n/t Blaukraut Oct 2012 #63

I wonder where Geek is? WI_DEM Oct 2012 #83

That's a huge lead with early voters! LisaL Oct 2012 #64

This is tragic for geek tragedy Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #67

lol hrmjustin Oct 2012 #81

RCP has added the PPP poll to their OHIO average: TroyD Oct 2012 #74

Hey! I think we may be missing good news in here. FBaggins Oct 2012 #75

You might be right Blaukraut Oct 2012 #82

NBC/NYT/Marist showed practically the same findings. Jennicut Oct 2012 #102

for those who would like to read the results from PPP web site, they are now posted: WI_DEM Oct 2012 #76

It's great to read the whole thing. Thanks, WI_DEM! writes3000 Oct 2012 #85

you're welcome. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #105

This implies the Obama campaign's work in Ohio is paying off. Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #90

I think it definitely is WI_DEM Oct 2012 #94

PPP also shows Sherrod Brown +7 TroyD Oct 2012 #77

Thank you Mr. Biden. Finally a day where I haven't bitten my nails. Democratopia Oct 2012 #78

Yay! Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #79

This IS AN NATIONAL POLL! aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #84

I, too, have felt that whoever wins Ohio wins the presidency. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #92

For our Republican friends questioning the poll. aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #86

Repubs Are Not Motivated To Vote For Romney, Look At The Early Vote Numbers Skraxx Oct 2012 #87

Thank you.. dgraz007 Oct 2012 #88

excellent, we all need to stay positive. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #89

Okay, I can sleep this weekend. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #95

Downticket. Downticket. Downticket. onehandle Oct 2012 #96

Yes indeed. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #109

This is good news!!!! skeewee08 Oct 2012 #97

That's what I'm talking about!!! Ohio baby! budkin Oct 2012 #98

If Obama has 75% of those who voted early, and... demwing Oct 2012 #99

Just quick donated another $10. We must win! The alternative is terrifying. SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #100

tell that to the assholes at Reuters, who just put a story on Yahoo that ROmney is TIED with Obama progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #101

typical of the MSM WI_DEM Oct 2012 #103

The early voting numbers are great.. DCBob Oct 2012 #104

I agree WI_DEM Oct 2012 #107