2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: There are 4 contests this weekend. Sanders is favored in 3 out of 4: Go Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine! [View all]GeoWilliam750
(2,522 posts)In 1992, in the general election, in how many of the 50 states did Bill receive an absolute majority of the vote?
Answer. He had a grand total of ONE, Arkansas. Bill only won the national election with 43% of the national vote in 1992 because the Republican vote was split by Ross Perot.
In 1996, Bill did better with his incumbent advantage, almost exactly equaling the combined Dole and Perot. Because of Perot splitting the Republican vote, Bill took Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Without these states, Bill would have still received 270 of 538 electoral votes, thus squeaking into the presidency because the New Hampshire vote was further split by the Libertarian party.
With all the advantages of an incumbent with a strong economy, Bill Clinton was able to achieve a majority of the vote in 19 states with a total of 230 electoral votes. This strikes me as less than an overwhelming achievement. Obama's victories on the other hand were impressive indeed.
In both of his presidential campaigns, a majority of the electorate voted AGAINST Bill Clinton. Then the question is, in 1996, in how many Southern states did Bill Clinton receive an absolute majority?
The answer is two - Arkansas and Louisiana.
Bill Clinton should kneel before a statue of Ross Perot every morning in thanks for his intervention in two elections. And Hillary is not Bill.
Looking at the 2016 Presidential election, who is going to split the Republican vote so that Hillary can take the Southern states?