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2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)To those who haven't yet voted...don't worry your little heads. 538's got this. [View all]
From Harry Enten at Fivethirtyeight March 2.
Hillary Clintons Got This

To borrow a phrase from Dan Rather, Hillary Clinton swept through the South like a big wheel through a Delta cotton field on Super Tuesday. She won seven states total, including Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia in the South. She also won Massachusetts and American Samoa. Bernie Sanders emerged victorious in four states (Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Vermont), but his victories tended to come by smaller margins and in smaller states. The end result is that Clinton has a clear path to winning the nomination, and Sanderss only hope to derail her is for something very unusual to happen.
....This lead is pretty much insurmountable. Democrats award delegates proportionally, which means Sanders would need to win by big margins in the remaining states to catch up. He hasnt seen those kinds of wins outside of his home state of Vermont and next-door New Hampshire. Consider the case of Massachusetts: My colleague Nate Silvers model had Sanders winning the state by 11 percentage points if the race were tied nationally and by 3 points based on the FiveThirtyEight polling average last week. Instead, Sanders lost by nearly 2 percentage points.
....Sanders, perhaps not surprisingly, has indicated that hell continue to fight for votes across the country. But for every win he may get in mostly white states, Clinton will be marching toward the nomination with likely victories in states such as Michigan and Florida. The math indicates that Clinton eventually will win the nomination with relative ease.
To paraphrase...Hillary will be the nominee but Bernie's welcome to be along for the ride.
This is shamelessly taking the human factor out of voting and pushing Hillary.
SO...to those of you in all these states yet to vote
...including the delegate rich state of California:
Too bad for you guys, but go ahead anyway. Just remember who's already won.
Idaho March 22nd
Arizona March 22nd
Alaska March 26th
Hawaii March 26th
Washington March 26th
Wisconsin April 5th
Wyoming April 9th
New York April 19th
Connecticut April 26th
Delaware April 26th
Maryland April 26th
Pennsylvania April 26th
Rhode Island April 26th
Indiana May 3rd
Nebraska May 10th
West Virginia May 10th
Kentucky May 17th
Oregon May 17th
California June 7th
Montana June 7th
New Jersey June 7th
New Mexico June 7th
North Dakota June 7th
South Dakota June 7th
District of Columbia June 14th
173 replies
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To those who haven't yet voted...don't worry your little heads. 538's got this. [View all]
madfloridian
Mar 2016
OP
Mr. 538 is part of the national brainwashing campaign to force us to accept Hillary.
reformist2
Mar 2016
#1
Ready to incorporate the idea of trend lines based on favorability ratings...
kristopher
Mar 2016
#172
You want a serious response to the kneejerk, "If they support Hillary, they are corrupt!"?
Buzz Clik
Mar 2016
#141
It's a corrupt system designed to keep the 99% under the thumb of the establishment...
haikugal
Mar 2016
#155
They pledged before votes were cast, how is that based on democratic principles?
haikugal
Mar 2016
#159
I voted Dem for Kennedy plus Dem ever since. Now I'm not a good Dem for supporting Bernie.
madfloridian
Mar 2016
#34
I was converted to the Democratic Party in 1952. I wore an Adlai Stevenson pin in 1956.
JDPriestly
Mar 2016
#80
Exactly. It's disgusting. And Camp Weathervane Dirty Tricks Squad pulls that shit constantly here.
GoneFishin
Mar 2016
#76
Well, if you taught it everyday, then you shoud be able to refute his math....
msanthrope
Mar 2016
#131
If you feel the need to continue this, go ahead. I see you keep mentioning a jury?
madfloridian
Mar 2016
#132
She was an elementary teacher. They teach math, language, science, social studies, reading, etc.
wavesofeuphoria
Mar 2016
#149
Remember the exit polls problem in 2000? I'm looking for some articles now.
madfloridian
Mar 2016
#39
Let's allow the statisticians to decide elections, take out the human factor. Right?
madfloridian
Mar 2016
#47
it is embarrassing that blackbox "output" is accepted without question
questionseverything
Mar 2016
#164
charnin has done amazing work over the years documenting the "red shift"
questionseverything
Mar 2016
#163
I didn't buy it either. She leaped ahead by 22,000 votes in the first 20% of returns, then didn't
GoneFishin
Mar 2016
#88
This is why we have abysmal turnout, this narrative suppresses the vote and that's why they do it.
Bluenorthwest
Mar 2016
#52
Isn’t 538 the blog that told us Trump had ZERO chance and Jeb! was a lock for the nomination?
Vote2016
Mar 2016
#60
Hillary Clinton will still win the Democratic nomination and be elected President.
George II
Mar 2016
#79