2016 Postmortem

kristopher

(29,798 posts)

91. 538 is not "Nate Silver" anymore

Reply to SCantiGOP (Reply #74)

Sat Mar 5, 2016, 06:48 PM

Mar 2016

He's affiliated, but there are several other analysts there who have a free hand.

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To those who haven't yet voted...don't worry your little heads. 538's got this. [View all] madfloridian Mar 2016 OP

Mr. 538 is part of the national brainwashing campaign to force us to accept Hillary. reformist2 Mar 2016 #1

It's not working.... peacebird Mar 2016 #42

^THIS. silvershadow Mar 2016 #140

How's that delegate count working? Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #142

How many states to go? AgingAmerican Mar 2016 #167

Michigan on Tuesday. Shaping up to be another huge loss for Sanders. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #168

Ready to incorporate the idea of trend lines based on favorability ratings... kristopher Mar 2016 #172

Does it matter since 538 has decided the issue? madfloridian Mar 2016 #169

Just stop. Polling is done because people want to know. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #170

Oh noes!!! Yet another pollster goes under the bus! Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #55

Seems this is all you got anymore whatchamacallit Mar 2016 #133

You want a serious response to the kneejerk, "If they support Hillary, they are corrupt!"? Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #141

Reformist: SCantiGOP Mar 2016 #74

538 is not "Nate Silver" anymore kristopher Mar 2016 #91

Nate Silver is with ESPN...they are making voting movies together. madfloridian Mar 2016 #166

Nate Silver isn't the author of the OP n/t arcane1 Mar 2016 #101

538 used to be good. Helen Borg Mar 2016 #103

Honest answer: SCantiGOP Mar 2016 #104

Honest question to answer your question: cprise Mar 2016 #111

I know, right? Jeb! Was a lock according to 538... oopsie? peacebird Mar 2016 #146

This is delusional bullshit. Adrahil Mar 2016 #150

What is a "desuted narrative?" Human101948 Mar 2016 #151

IPad keyboarding error. It was "desired". NT Adrahil Mar 2016 #152

Thanks! Human101948 Mar 2016 #153

I am trying to remember GeoWilliam750 Mar 2016 #106

Our overlords.... haikugal Mar 2016 #112

Between the media and the pollsters...we don't need to bother. madfloridian Mar 2016 #124

It is so apparent they've forever blown their cover. haikugal Mar 2016 #125

They DATA DRIVEN. Adrahil Mar 2016 #154

It's a corrupt system designed to keep the 99% under the thumb of the establishment... haikugal Mar 2016 #155

I look foward to reading your analysis of the delgates. NT Adrahil Mar 2016 #156

You mean the super delegates? haikugal Mar 2016 #157

Nope, take the super dels out of it. Adrahil Mar 2016 #158

They pledged before votes were cast, how is that based on democratic principles? haikugal Mar 2016 #159

What are you talking about? Adrahil Mar 2016 #160

I'm talking about the way delegates are divided up and super delegates. haikugal Mar 2016 #161

Kick warrprayer Mar 2016 #2

Also Kentucky May 17th A Little Weird Mar 2016 #3

Here's where I got that list...wonder if others are missing as well?? madfloridian Mar 2016 #4

Well, according to Daily Kos bernbabe Mar 2016 #11

that animated gif is so awesome navarth Mar 2016 #99

..... madfloridian Mar 2016 #139

I don't know A Little Weird Mar 2016 #16

I had edited KY in, but took it out until I get more info. madfloridian Mar 2016 #19

No I'm sure that it's May the 17th A Little Weird Mar 2016 #26

I added it back. madfloridian Mar 2016 #30

I will be voting for Bernie on March 26. liberal_at_heart Mar 2016 #5

And I for Bernie on June 7th. AtomicKitten Mar 2016 #85

Caucusing here on the 26th, as well. Blue_In_AK Mar 2016 #98

Arizona, also March 22. panader0 Mar 2016 #6

I'm in AZ too DesertRat Mar 2016 #73

Sure SheenaR Mar 2016 #7

538 has joined list of clinton supporters Robbins Mar 2016 #13

I'm sick of it SheenaR Mar 2016 #17

consider this Robbins Mar 2016 #22

I voted Dem for Kennedy plus Dem ever since. Now I'm not a good Dem for supporting Bernie. madfloridian Mar 2016 #34

We must be close to the same age, madfloridian. Duval Mar 2016 #115

I remember the huge lines that year. madfloridian Mar 2016 #120

I was converted to the Democratic Party in 1952. I wore an Adlai Stevenson pin in 1956. JDPriestly Mar 2016 #80

When did 538 call Sanders racist? randome Mar 2016 #37

No. We are saying black voters have decisively rejected him. hack89 Mar 2016 #94

It's sickening Kall Mar 2016 #68

polls and pronouncements are intended to shape outcomes, not measure them MisterP Mar 2016 #8

I have always believed that. madfloridian Mar 2016 #23

and here's a candidate relying on voter suppression! MisterP Mar 2016 #25

With the party chair on board.. madfloridian Mar 2016 #56

You've got that right! n/t marew Mar 2016 #58

Exactly. It's disgusting. And Camp Weathervane Dirty Tricks Squad pulls that shit constantly here. GoneFishin Mar 2016 #76

+1000000000. Eom Karma13612 Mar 2016 #147

Time to get on with the General itsrobert Mar 2016 #9

If it is true that there is no path for Bernie to get the nomination Kalidurga Mar 2016 #14

Time to get on with the General Contrary1 Mar 2016 #20

She has Stuckinthebush Mar 2016 #69

Hillary has no path to the presidency greymouse Mar 2016 #110

Translation: Hillary is tanking big time TBF Mar 2016 #10

I can relate radical noodle Mar 2016 #12

Bernie is not going to win MaggieD Mar 2016 #15

Well good for you and 538. Too bad for the rest of us. madfloridian Mar 2016 #21

So you want to outlaw people having opinions? MaggieD Mar 2016 #27

I don't even know how to reply to that. madfloridian Mar 2016 #36

That was strange. ms liberty Mar 2016 #78

Crack is bbbaaaadddd. Ivan Kaputski Mar 2016 #144

Bernie needs 53.8% of the remaining delegates. Far from impossible. MillennialDem Mar 2016 #72

Ok MaggieD Mar 2016 #109

The OP was a math teacher. I am hoping she can demostrate her proofs. nt msanthrope Mar 2016 #87

The OP never claimed to be a math teacher. The OP taught grades 1-6. madfloridian Mar 2016 #100

Quote"397. Wrong. I taught "new" math "old" math for decades." msanthrope Mar 2016 #107

You just proved Madfloridian's point. Beowulf Mar 2016 #116

I proved that madfloridian previously claimed to haved taught math.... msanthrope Mar 2016 #126

In elementary school. Beowulf Mar 2016 #128

What the fuck? Seriously....are you suggesting that an msanthrope Mar 2016 #134

I consider your response disingenuous. Goodbye. Beowulf Mar 2016 #138

Grades 1-6 teach math everyday. madfloridian Mar 2016 #129

Well, if you taught it everyday, then you shoud be able to refute his math.... msanthrope Mar 2016 #131

If you feel the need to continue this, go ahead. I see you keep mentioning a jury? madfloridian Mar 2016 #132

I would never alert on you. I think your posts deserve a spotlight. msanthrope Mar 2016 #135

How many years ago was that? madfloridian Mar 2016 #136

I'm Sicilian. We count decades as seconds. nr msanthrope Mar 2016 #137

Irony alert (and some red baiting) nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #127

The OP was a math teacher. I am hoping she can demostrate her proofs. nt msanthrope Mar 2016 #82

She was an elementary teacher. They teach math, language, science, social studies, reading, etc. wavesofeuphoria Mar 2016 #149

And they wonder why voter turnout is so low. Nanjeanne Mar 2016 #18

Kiss my ass Harry angrychair Mar 2016 #24

Math and data and demographics MaggieD Mar 2016 #31

Then stop the damn primaries, Maggie D. Why bother with voting? madfloridian Mar 2016 #38

So you all can see he really lost MaggieD Mar 2016 #43

Again, half the country hasn't voted angrychair Mar 2016 #49

Great - vote MaggieD Mar 2016 #51

Exactly!!! marew Mar 2016 #46

I will caucus for Bernie on March 26th angrychair Mar 2016 #28

me too! March 26. Go Bernie! liberal_at_heart Mar 2016 #32

LOL - and I and my family will caucus for Hillary on the same day MaggieD Mar 2016 #35

Yep, "un-democratic" angrychair Mar 2016 #59

No, I have always thought that about caucuses MaggieD Mar 2016 #61

Closest we have ever come to agreeing so far angrychair Mar 2016 #64

I certainly hope your family is reading all of this crap you post Its Got Electrolytes Mar 2016 #95

No one in my family supports Bernie MaggieD Mar 2016 #108

What do you mean by "anti-democratic"? Duval Mar 2016 #117

He who lives by the crystal ball ends up eating broken glass. DinahMoeHum Mar 2016 #29

The MA totals are still questionable as well Ned_Devine Mar 2016 #33

Remember the exit polls problem in 2000? I'm looking for some articles now. madfloridian Mar 2016 #39

It is scary. Punkingal Mar 2016 #44

I seriously wouldn't put it past some party hacks to fix the numbers. reformist2 Mar 2016 #50

You believe exit polls over actual voting? MaggieD Mar 2016 #40

Thanks, MaggieD for keep my thread kicked. Means a lot. madfloridian Mar 2016 #41

It's a funny thread - she has been winning all along MaggieD Mar 2016 #45

Let's allow the statisticians to decide elections, take out the human factor. Right? madfloridian Mar 2016 #47

The PEOPLE are deciding it, and as predicted he is losing MaggieD Mar 2016 #48

Thank you for this crystal clear analysis. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #65

richard charnin caught the ptb adjusting the exit polls questionseverything Mar 2016 #63

This part..about the unedited exit poll MA...fascinating. madfloridian Mar 2016 #75

This is just embarrassing mythology Mar 2016 #162

it is embarrassing that blackbox "output" is accepted without question questionseverything Mar 2016 #164

charnin has done amazing work over the years documenting the "red shift" questionseverything Mar 2016 #163

Hello! "Super delegates" are not awarded proportionally! marew Mar 2016 #57

She will continue to win without super delegates. Nt hack89 Mar 2016 #96

I didn't buy it either. She leaped ahead by 22,000 votes in the first 20% of returns, then didn't GoneFishin Mar 2016 #88

This is why we have abysmal turnout, this narrative suppresses the vote and that's why they do it. Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #52

What happened to Bernie's revolution? MaggieD Mar 2016 #54

Not to worry BlueNW ... KPN Mar 2016 #66

It ain't over! SoapBox Mar 2016 #53

Isn’t 538 the blog that told us Trump had ZERO chance and Jeb! was a lock for the nomination? Vote2016 Mar 2016 #60

Is 538 going to prevent you from voting? comradebillyboy Mar 2016 #62

Kick! FloriTexan Mar 2016 #67

So the coronation was today? Motown_Johnny Mar 2016 #70

It Was Over Before It Was Over Billsmile Mar 2016 #71

On the Ides of March my household is voting for BERNIE SANDERS !!! erlewyne Mar 2016 #77

Hillary Clinton will still win the Democratic nomination and be elected President. George II Mar 2016 #79

...... madfloridian Mar 2016 #83

Where, how, and by whom? George II Mar 2016 #84

.... madfloridian Mar 2016 #86

Why do you link back to your OP to which we've all be replying? George II Mar 2016 #92

Because the question you just asked has been answered. madfloridian Mar 2016 #93

You were a math teacher. So tell us how the MATH is wrong. nt msanthrope Mar 2016 #90

Not sure where you got that idea. madfloridian Mar 2016 #118

Here....where you claimed to have taught Math for decades.... msanthrope Mar 2016 #130

You were a math teacher, right? Show us how Nate is wrong. nt msanthrope Mar 2016 #81

Sorry. The math just isn't there...nt SidDithers Mar 2016 #89

Can't wait for June 7th dpatbrown Mar 2016 #97

Another guy with ties to Clinton, I bet Helen Borg Mar 2016 #102

538 got it right once PatrynXX Mar 2016 #105

Hillary is a corporate whore Perogie Mar 2016 #113

It's just business. Ivan Kaputski Mar 2016 #145

2 here voting for Bernie on March 15th. nt Duval Mar 2016 #114

Mailed in my absentee ballot last week. madfloridian Mar 2016 #171

With 24 states and DC left to go...folks, 538 says we have a winner!! madfloridian Mar 2016 #119

Are they showing Hillary's results WITH superdelegates... madfloridian Mar 2016 #121

I would take a wild guess and say "of course " Karma13612 Mar 2016 #148

Awesome post! FloriTexan Mar 2016 #122

...... madfloridian Mar 2016 #123

Is it true that Obama didn't lead in delegates until May? madfloridian Mar 2016 #143

Kick because 538's new prediction says Hillary is IT!!! madfloridian Mar 2016 #165

Kick...nt SidDithers Mar 2016 #173