2016 Postmortem

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)

19. Ohio and Illinois, yes.

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 04:09 AM

Mar 2016

A Sanders win in Florida or North Carolina seems too unlikely to consider it a bellwether, which is how I referred to Michigan in this thread. Likewise, New York and Maryland seem to favor Clinton too heavily to give them much consideration. Not that upsets in those states couldn't happen, mind you, but other states that are more iffy will be more telling. Ohio, Missouri and Illinois (along with Pennsylvania, which doesn't vote until April 26th) are, demographically-speaking, similar to Michigan. Illinois less so than those other 3. Wins in a few of those states are crucial for Sanders.

Michigan hit the pause button, but if Clinton wins all 5 March 15 primaries, Sanders won't be able to overcome the deficit.

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Clinton is still a heavy favorite, but... [View all] Garrett78 Mar 2016 OP

Watch Ohio, Florida and Illinois Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #1

How many times are you going to assert "...and then it's over!" Scootaloo Mar 2016 #3

Every poll, every prediction is reassessed with new information. randome Mar 2016 #25

And the predictions keep ending up wrong. Scootaloo Mar 2016 #28

Some predictions are foolish, yes. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #29

Except at this point, the predictions of DOOM! are all nonsensical Scootaloo Mar 2016 #33

Well, "immediate doom" is a show of overzealousness. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #35

That's my point here. Scootaloo Mar 2016 #36

We agree that there are irrational and overzealous peeps. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #39

True. lovemydog Mar 2016 #8

2008 was even more interesting IMO Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #10

More interesting for me too lovemydog Mar 2016 #20

What I find interesting... Garrett78 Mar 2016 #26

Ohio and Illinois, yes. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #19

She's got Florida, it's a closed primary vdogg Mar 2016 #27

Ohio, Missouri and, later on, Pennsylvania... Garrett78 Mar 2016 #31

I just posted in another thread that Hillary's folks would Jarqui Mar 2016 #2

Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska and the like won't cut it. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #9

After the 15th. we don't have 12% of a season or 20 games left Jarqui Mar 2016 #22

Those 8 contests by my count: 373 pledged delegates Garrett78 Mar 2016 #24

For sure the math is against him. Jarqui Mar 2016 #30

Petraeus got a slap on the wrist for a greater offense. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #34

He got a criminal conviction that effectively ended his career Jarqui Mar 2016 #38

The fault with this premise madokie Mar 2016 #4

Rhetoric and policy shouldn't ever be confused, true. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #18

Thom Hartmann was talking about this today and Sparky 1 Mar 2016 #21

Harry Enten of 538 is wiping the egg off of Nate's face. total joke now litlbilly Mar 2016 #5

Thx for the link! pat_k Mar 2016 #6

Have to ask. Heavily favored by who? cant use the polls, they are meaningless now. litlbilly Mar 2016 #7

The polls aren't meaningless. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #11

when all your polls are old ladies with landlines, they are bullshit litlbilly Mar 2016 #12

66 to 29? Yeah, total bullshit. sorry nothing you can say to change that litlbilly Mar 2016 #13

Someone must have really been hitting the Maui Wowie Art_from_Ark Mar 2016 #14

I do have some nice kush, but not tonight, just tired, been a long day:) I love Oregon litlbilly Mar 2016 #15

that is an actual poll litlbilly Mar 2016 #16

heres the link to the poll litlbilly Mar 2016 #17

Yep, 60% female and 80% over 60 years old.... snooper2 Mar 2016 #32

That Gwhittey Mar 2016 #40

Why, Nate Silver and 538, of course! Zorra Mar 2016 #23

She is not that Heavy maybe a slight bit over waight awake Mar 2016 #37