Michigan was not an outlier [View all]
Bernie dramatically beat expectations in Michigan. Polls had him down by 22 but he ended up winning by 2 (+24). What the media isn't talking about, however, is that this isn't even his biggest upset in the primary. In Minnesota he was down by 3 but won by 23 (+26).
He has outperformed the polls by more than 10% in nearly every state he has won so far. His average surprise is +13. Hillary has outperformed in most of her southern state wins, but not by nearly as much, and has actually underperformed in a couple of her wins: Massachusetts (-7) and Louisiana (-8). Her average surprise in her winning states is only +3.
So what does this all mean (besides "polls are shit"
? If Bernie continues to outperform the polls at the same rate, he will wrap up the nomination in June.
FEEL THE BERN!!!
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