2016 Postmortem

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)

64. Hillary wins the Bible Belt (FL, NC); it's close elsewhere (MO, OH, and IL). The corrupt Chicago

Fri Mar 11, 2016, 10:03 AM

Mar 2016

machine is unsurprisingly supporting the turn-a-blind-eye establishment to keep their status quo so it will be interesting to see if that machine can blunt the force of the grassroots in IL.

Like Harry Reid made the difference by going all in for Hillary in Nevada, Claire McCaskill is going all in for Hillary so it will be another interesting status quo establishment versus grassroots fight in MO.

OH is the Republican Waterloo that will make or break OH governor Kasich's campaign and push Trump to the nomination or stop Trump's momentum. This is affecting the Democratic primary (I know Democrats and liberal independents who are voting for Kasich because they are so offended by Trump and fear that Democrats are not enthusiastic enough as compared to his supporters and will be unable to stop him in November), but it is not clear to me whether this benefits Hillary or Sanders (I know of both Sanders supporters and a Hillary supporter who are voting Kasich).

I suspect FL will be closer than the rest of the Bible Belt and NC will be closer than FL and MO, OH, and IL are coin toss races (I won't be surprised if either candidate wins) but I don't think either candidate will likely sweep all three.

I predict with with great confidence that this will be the last week for a long, long time where Hillary nets more delegates than Sanders!

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

132 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

So. FL, MO, NC, OH, and IL vote on Tuesday. My predictions. [View all] Recursion Mar 2016 OP

My prediction: Hillary wins all 5 of the states Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #1

I think Clinton's significantly weaker in the midwest than the polling suggests Recursion Mar 2016 #3

Here is a demographically based turn out model by one of the leaders in the field DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #9

I think the open vs. closed distinction is crucial Recursion Mar 2016 #12

On Tuesday we will know if Abramowitz's model, conventional polling, or neither is right. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #18

Interesting times, as they say (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #21

In political modeling small moves among large groups can have a large impact. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #44

That looks about right to me. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #95

Either you or Cali_Democrat could be right. There are also a few important things to remember stevenleser Mar 2016 #131

But your last point is a good one Recursion Mar 2016 #4

I don't think that is much of a problem vdogg Mar 2016 #5

We'll see Recursion Mar 2016 #6

The candidate that goes into the Convention with the most popular votes and pledged delegates... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #15

So would a Clinton nomination out of a brokered convention. Chan790 Mar 2016 #23

She is going to the Convention with the most popular votes and the most pledged delegates. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #28

I don't think it matters. Chan790 Mar 2016 #67

The person with the most popular votes and most pledged delegates wins. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #73

What if those are different people? (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #94

Please elaborate... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #96

But it is not a given that the person with the most popular votes and the person with the most Recursion Mar 2016 #98

I can not foresee a scenario where the person with the most delegates doesn't have the most actual... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #100

I think they may be and still not matter... Chan790 Mar 2016 #116

So we have moved from complaining that Clinton is "stealing" the nomination mythology Mar 2016 #105

We would see the "Bernie states are more important" argument firebrand80 Mar 2016 #8

After next Tuesday Clinton will have won the three key swing states from 08 and 012. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #10

We heard the same thing ALL last week before Michigan. Dawgs Mar 2016 #60

That's a nonsense argument. BillZBubb Mar 2016 #61

She most definitely will be competitive in NC, FL , and VA in the general election. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #70

Yes 4Q2u2 Mar 2016 #79

Oh that's only the start of what we'll see. We'll also see paeans to the importance of supers Recursion Mar 2016 #16

It's funny to me that the people who whine the loudest about super delegates are pretty quiet about Number23 Mar 2016 #129

What is to be upset about... Chan790 Mar 2016 #19

Ha! That's Not Going to work Stallion Mar 2016 #92

You need to ignore the superdelegates in your assessment about who can win. reformist2 Mar 2016 #25

All hell may well break loose, is what I'm saying (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #26

Not too much longer and we'll be seeing these signs BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #27

I'll place a huge bet in favor of your predictions. They look good to me. nt Jitter65 Mar 2016 #2

Seems reasonable. I'm wondering if Kasich on the ballot will be a factor in Ohio Orangepeel Mar 2016 #7

Are you looking to take over where for Nothing Nate stepped in it? aspirant Mar 2016 #11

What's your prediction? Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #37

I don't predict, I'll let the propagandists do their thing. aspirant Mar 2016 #46

Ah. The consummate curmudgeon: always complaining but contributing nothing. Ok. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #48

One can slowly drown in their unscientific, unverifiable numerical predictions aspirant Mar 2016 #52

Yeah, we get it. You don't like polls. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #56

I'm happy you finally understand my "contribution" aspirant Mar 2016 #59

Ah yes! If a model is ever wrong, it's useless. Climate science is a LIE!!!!! Adrahil Mar 2016 #77

Science, E=MC2 how often does this model change? aspirant Mar 2016 #78

All scientific theories are models. Adrahil Mar 2016 #81

If everything is a model and ever changing, then we only have predictions and aspirant Mar 2016 #82

In a sense, you're right asp, there are no "pure" scientific "facts" Nitram Mar 2016 #88

Bingo. It's the same argument evolution and AGW deniers use. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #93

Correct. Mostly. Adrahil Mar 2016 #91

I don't share your confidence in "facts", Adrahil. Nitram Mar 2016 #101

Well, here's what I mean. Adrahil Mar 2016 #115

Yes, we are in agreement, Adrahil. Nitram Mar 2016 #117

Absolutely! Fascinating. Adrahil Mar 2016 #119

You might find Thomas Kuhn's book, "the Structure of Scientific Revolutions" as interesting... Nitram Mar 2016 #123

/geek=on/ Irony alert: that is not the actual formula. Real formula: E=1/2(mc^2-mv^2) ieoeja Mar 2016 #104

statistics are not "unscientific" thesquanderer Mar 2016 #120

Right squanderer, there is a big difference between a scientific poll and an unscientific one. Nitram Mar 2016 #121

Results must be available and verified to label it scientific aspirant Mar 2016 #128

Wrong aspirant Mar 2016 #127

Yet science can also be wrong. thesquanderer Mar 2016 #130

"with the data available" aspirant Mar 2016 #132

About NC marions ghost Mar 2016 #13

And NC's been having that Mondays thing, right? Recursion Mar 2016 #14

NC opposition to the status quo is marions ghost Mar 2016 #24

I wonder if Gwhittey Mar 2016 #22

The most interesting buzz from Charlotte marions ghost Mar 2016 #31

If it plays out as you say, I'd be over the top delighted Jarqui Mar 2016 #17

Missouri isn't anywhere in the polls; that's the thing Recursion Mar 2016 #20

I've tried to look at this objectively. I think you have too. Jarqui Mar 2016 #29

Late March and April are going to very good for Sanders, and here's the thing: Recursion Mar 2016 #30

The Clinton campaign thought they could bury him in the early primaries. Jarqui Mar 2016 #45

"sticking your neck out" aspirant Mar 2016 #40

On Mar 15th, the Clinton campaign will begin to press Sanders to get out of the race. Jarqui Mar 2016 #63

emotions aspirant Mar 2016 #74

I don't think looking at the facts and commenting on them is "propaganda" Jarqui Mar 2016 #84

What "facts" aspirant Mar 2016 #89

Polls are facts Jarqui Mar 2016 #97

No, "polls" are not facts, they're guesses aspirant Mar 2016 #111

You've completely convinced me that helping you Jarqui Mar 2016 #113

I agree. If he ends up only increasing his deficit by about 100, that would be tremendous. thesquanderer Mar 2016 #75

Florida for Sanders. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #32

Marking this prediction. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #35

I only make that prediction on the condition that closed means what I said above. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #39

A closed primary means only registered Democrats can vote. You changing your prediction? Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #43

I'm not changing anything. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #47

You'll be interested in this: Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #51

That 29th day must be a specific Florida thing. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #58

Yeah, no. FL is Clinton. Recursion Mar 2016 #36

"Closed primary" means you can only vote in your party's primary DinahMoeHum Mar 2016 #38

Not even if you re-register as Democrat that day? PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #41

Registration for FL ended Feb 16th nt Jarqui Mar 2016 #49

Glad I don't live in Florida. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #62

It's a Florida Rule RockaFowler Mar 2016 #114

You have HRC adding ~100 delegates to her lead. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #33

I do Recursion Mar 2016 #34

I think you are mostly right in this thread JonLeibowitz Mar 2016 #85

I don't think Illinois will be close alcibiades_mystery Mar 2016 #42

Bernie might carry Chicago. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #53

You think Bernie will carry Chicago? alcibiades_mystery Mar 2016 #57

That's why we post these threads Recursion Mar 2016 #66

Sanders will lose Chicago dramatically Recursion Mar 2016 #65

Rahm is a giant poison pill. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #69

Oh yeah what am I thinking? Some key polling places where Bernie is polling well will not open until lunasun Mar 2016 #90

Sanders has dominated in rural regions. Suburbs and cities have been Hillary's. ieoeja Mar 2016 #106

Because of the Michigan polling debacle folks are disregarding all polls... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #54

First Bernie campaign ad I saw in Chicago was on Wednesday. ieoeja Mar 2016 #110

That would probably be Bernie's best case scenario.. but just puts him in a much deeper hole. DCBob Mar 2016 #50

I agree with both points Recursion Mar 2016 #55

If contested and Hillary has the lead.. she wins. DCBob Mar 2016 #71

At the risk of going all mysterious.... we'll see Recursion Mar 2016 #72

It's a 2-person race cemaphonic Mar 2016 #112

Hillary wins the Bible Belt (FL, NC); it's close elsewhere (MO, OH, and IL). The corrupt Chicago Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #64

Nice talk about Chicago. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #76

The corruption embodied by Rahm Emanuel is not what the PEOPLE of Chicago are all about. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #80

You are right SheenaR Mar 2016 #122

I'm in Illinois and... jcgoldie Mar 2016 #68

I see Bernie OkSustainAg Mar 2016 #83

Thanks for sharing your predictions and your reasoning. Nitram Mar 2016 #86

Glad to. I could very well be wrong, but I like to get my thoughts out there. (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #87

Bernie will outperform, consistent with what he's done in every race so far. closeupready Mar 2016 #99

I think IL is in play Scootaloo Mar 2016 #102

I predict Bernie will win IL. Rahm is despised in Chicago. Not just for the coverup of McDonald's jillan Mar 2016 #103

Bernie SheenaR Mar 2016 #107

I voted early in FLorida OriginalGeek Mar 2016 #108

Since it makes no difference, I'll go bold. Bernie takes MO, NC and OH. Hillary takes FL and IL. morningfog Mar 2016 #109

Like it marions ghost Mar 2016 #118

Don't forget that MO is an AR neighbor (as was TN) TheDormouse Mar 2016 #124

also, don't forget Dem primaries are NOT winner-takes-all TheDormouse Mar 2016 #125

on Florida AgerolanAmerican Mar 2016 #126