2016 Postmortem

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

87. Glad to. I could very well be wrong, but I like to get my thoughts out there. (nt)

Reply to Nitram (Reply #86)

Fri Mar 11, 2016, 10:59 AM

Mar 2016

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So. FL, MO, NC, OH, and IL vote on Tuesday. My predictions. [View all] Recursion Mar 2016 OP

My prediction: Hillary wins all 5 of the states Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #1

I think Clinton's significantly weaker in the midwest than the polling suggests Recursion Mar 2016 #3

Here is a demographically based turn out model by one of the leaders in the field DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #9

I think the open vs. closed distinction is crucial Recursion Mar 2016 #12

On Tuesday we will know if Abramowitz's model, conventional polling, or neither is right. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #18

Interesting times, as they say (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #21

In political modeling small moves among large groups can have a large impact. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #44

That looks about right to me. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #95

Either you or Cali_Democrat could be right. There are also a few important things to remember stevenleser Mar 2016 #131

But your last point is a good one Recursion Mar 2016 #4

I don't think that is much of a problem vdogg Mar 2016 #5

We'll see Recursion Mar 2016 #6

The candidate that goes into the Convention with the most popular votes and pledged delegates... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #15

So would a Clinton nomination out of a brokered convention. Chan790 Mar 2016 #23

She is going to the Convention with the most popular votes and the most pledged delegates. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #28

I don't think it matters. Chan790 Mar 2016 #67

The person with the most popular votes and most pledged delegates wins. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #73

What if those are different people? (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #94

Please elaborate... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #96

But it is not a given that the person with the most popular votes and the person with the most Recursion Mar 2016 #98

I can not foresee a scenario where the person with the most delegates doesn't have the most actual... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #100

I think they may be and still not matter... Chan790 Mar 2016 #116

So we have moved from complaining that Clinton is "stealing" the nomination mythology Mar 2016 #105

We would see the "Bernie states are more important" argument firebrand80 Mar 2016 #8

After next Tuesday Clinton will have won the three key swing states from 08 and 012. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #10

We heard the same thing ALL last week before Michigan. Dawgs Mar 2016 #60

That's a nonsense argument. BillZBubb Mar 2016 #61

She most definitely will be competitive in NC, FL , and VA in the general election. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #70

Yes 4Q2u2 Mar 2016 #79

Oh that's only the start of what we'll see. We'll also see paeans to the importance of supers Recursion Mar 2016 #16

It's funny to me that the people who whine the loudest about super delegates are pretty quiet about Number23 Mar 2016 #129

What is to be upset about... Chan790 Mar 2016 #19

Ha! That's Not Going to work Stallion Mar 2016 #92

You need to ignore the superdelegates in your assessment about who can win. reformist2 Mar 2016 #25

All hell may well break loose, is what I'm saying (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #26

Not too much longer and we'll be seeing these signs BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #27

I'll place a huge bet in favor of your predictions. They look good to me. nt Jitter65 Mar 2016 #2

Seems reasonable. I'm wondering if Kasich on the ballot will be a factor in Ohio Orangepeel Mar 2016 #7

Are you looking to take over where for Nothing Nate stepped in it? aspirant Mar 2016 #11

What's your prediction? Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #37

I don't predict, I'll let the propagandists do their thing. aspirant Mar 2016 #46

Ah. The consummate curmudgeon: always complaining but contributing nothing. Ok. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #48

One can slowly drown in their unscientific, unverifiable numerical predictions aspirant Mar 2016 #52

Yeah, we get it. You don't like polls. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #56

I'm happy you finally understand my "contribution" aspirant Mar 2016 #59

Ah yes! If a model is ever wrong, it's useless. Climate science is a LIE!!!!! Adrahil Mar 2016 #77

Science, E=MC2 how often does this model change? aspirant Mar 2016 #78

All scientific theories are models. Adrahil Mar 2016 #81

If everything is a model and ever changing, then we only have predictions and aspirant Mar 2016 #82

In a sense, you're right asp, there are no "pure" scientific "facts" Nitram Mar 2016 #88

Bingo. It's the same argument evolution and AGW deniers use. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #93

Correct. Mostly. Adrahil Mar 2016 #91

I don't share your confidence in "facts", Adrahil. Nitram Mar 2016 #101

Well, here's what I mean. Adrahil Mar 2016 #115

Yes, we are in agreement, Adrahil. Nitram Mar 2016 #117

Absolutely! Fascinating. Adrahil Mar 2016 #119

You might find Thomas Kuhn's book, "the Structure of Scientific Revolutions" as interesting... Nitram Mar 2016 #123

/geek=on/ Irony alert: that is not the actual formula. Real formula: E=1/2(mc^2-mv^2) ieoeja Mar 2016 #104

statistics are not "unscientific" thesquanderer Mar 2016 #120

Right squanderer, there is a big difference between a scientific poll and an unscientific one. Nitram Mar 2016 #121

Results must be available and verified to label it scientific aspirant Mar 2016 #128

Wrong aspirant Mar 2016 #127

Yet science can also be wrong. thesquanderer Mar 2016 #130

"with the data available" aspirant Mar 2016 #132

About NC marions ghost Mar 2016 #13

And NC's been having that Mondays thing, right? Recursion Mar 2016 #14

NC opposition to the status quo is marions ghost Mar 2016 #24

I wonder if Gwhittey Mar 2016 #22

The most interesting buzz from Charlotte marions ghost Mar 2016 #31

If it plays out as you say, I'd be over the top delighted Jarqui Mar 2016 #17

Missouri isn't anywhere in the polls; that's the thing Recursion Mar 2016 #20

I've tried to look at this objectively. I think you have too. Jarqui Mar 2016 #29

Late March and April are going to very good for Sanders, and here's the thing: Recursion Mar 2016 #30

The Clinton campaign thought they could bury him in the early primaries. Jarqui Mar 2016 #45

"sticking your neck out" aspirant Mar 2016 #40

On Mar 15th, the Clinton campaign will begin to press Sanders to get out of the race. Jarqui Mar 2016 #63

emotions aspirant Mar 2016 #74

I don't think looking at the facts and commenting on them is "propaganda" Jarqui Mar 2016 #84

What "facts" aspirant Mar 2016 #89

Polls are facts Jarqui Mar 2016 #97

No, "polls" are not facts, they're guesses aspirant Mar 2016 #111

You've completely convinced me that helping you Jarqui Mar 2016 #113

I agree. If he ends up only increasing his deficit by about 100, that would be tremendous. thesquanderer Mar 2016 #75

Florida for Sanders. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #32

Marking this prediction. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #35

I only make that prediction on the condition that closed means what I said above. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #39

A closed primary means only registered Democrats can vote. You changing your prediction? Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #43

I'm not changing anything. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #47

You'll be interested in this: Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #51

That 29th day must be a specific Florida thing. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #58

Yeah, no. FL is Clinton. Recursion Mar 2016 #36

"Closed primary" means you can only vote in your party's primary DinahMoeHum Mar 2016 #38

Not even if you re-register as Democrat that day? PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #41

Registration for FL ended Feb 16th nt Jarqui Mar 2016 #49

Glad I don't live in Florida. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #62

It's a Florida Rule RockaFowler Mar 2016 #114

You have HRC adding ~100 delegates to her lead. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #33

I do Recursion Mar 2016 #34

I think you are mostly right in this thread JonLeibowitz Mar 2016 #85

I don't think Illinois will be close alcibiades_mystery Mar 2016 #42

Bernie might carry Chicago. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #53

You think Bernie will carry Chicago? alcibiades_mystery Mar 2016 #57

That's why we post these threads Recursion Mar 2016 #66

Sanders will lose Chicago dramatically Recursion Mar 2016 #65

Rahm is a giant poison pill. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #69

Oh yeah what am I thinking? Some key polling places where Bernie is polling well will not open until lunasun Mar 2016 #90

Sanders has dominated in rural regions. Suburbs and cities have been Hillary's. ieoeja Mar 2016 #106

Because of the Michigan polling debacle folks are disregarding all polls... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #54

First Bernie campaign ad I saw in Chicago was on Wednesday. ieoeja Mar 2016 #110

That would probably be Bernie's best case scenario.. but just puts him in a much deeper hole. DCBob Mar 2016 #50

I agree with both points Recursion Mar 2016 #55

If contested and Hillary has the lead.. she wins. DCBob Mar 2016 #71

At the risk of going all mysterious.... we'll see Recursion Mar 2016 #72

It's a 2-person race cemaphonic Mar 2016 #112

Hillary wins the Bible Belt (FL, NC); it's close elsewhere (MO, OH, and IL). The corrupt Chicago Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #64

Nice talk about Chicago. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #76

The corruption embodied by Rahm Emanuel is not what the PEOPLE of Chicago are all about. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #80

You are right SheenaR Mar 2016 #122

I'm in Illinois and... jcgoldie Mar 2016 #68

I see Bernie OkSustainAg Mar 2016 #83

Thanks for sharing your predictions and your reasoning. Nitram Mar 2016 #86

Glad to. I could very well be wrong, but I like to get my thoughts out there. (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #87

Bernie will outperform, consistent with what he's done in every race so far. closeupready Mar 2016 #99

I think IL is in play Scootaloo Mar 2016 #102

I predict Bernie will win IL. Rahm is despised in Chicago. Not just for the coverup of McDonald's jillan Mar 2016 #103

Bernie SheenaR Mar 2016 #107

I voted early in FLorida OriginalGeek Mar 2016 #108

Since it makes no difference, I'll go bold. Bernie takes MO, NC and OH. Hillary takes FL and IL. morningfog Mar 2016 #109

Like it marions ghost Mar 2016 #118

Don't forget that MO is an AR neighbor (as was TN) TheDormouse Mar 2016 #124

also, don't forget Dem primaries are NOT winner-takes-all TheDormouse Mar 2016 #125

on Florida AgerolanAmerican Mar 2016 #126