2016 Postmortem

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)

105. UT, WA, WI, CT, DE, RI, WV, OR, IN, SD, ND, ID, MT, WY, AK

Fri Mar 11, 2016, 08:53 PM

Mar 2016

I wouldn't be shocked if Sanders were to win all or most of those. That will depend on how far behind he is when those states vote, and whether or not he remains in the race. Some won't bother to vote for him if they know he can't win. He could be behind by 350 or 400 delegates after March 15.

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Bernie will not be mathematically eliminated, if at all, before June 7 - the last day [View all] morningfog Mar 2016 OP

Yes indeed. He needs to capture >54.0% of the remaining pledged delegates to win. Tough but doable. thereismore Mar 2016 #1

Northern Marianas vote tomorrow! 6 pledged delegates. morningfog Mar 2016 #3

Unfortunately I hear that the territories go establishment. But we shall see. nt thereismore Mar 2016 #4

Outside the US they do not get the 24/7 propaganda feed. HubertHeaver Mar 2016 #44

Let's hope it translates! nt thereismore Mar 2016 #49

Excellent observation. n/t bvf Mar 2016 #54

That would be interesting seeing Hillary and Bernie talking about issues regarding Guam. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #6

I have no idea... thereismore Mar 2016 #8

kick morningfog Mar 2016 #2

Yep. CA is finally in play Recursion Mar 2016 #5

Nasty in good way, unlike the republican race Brother Buzz Mar 2016 #74

Yay! Yay! YAY!!!! dana_b Mar 2016 #94

It's too early to say the June primaries will be consequential. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #100

I cant find any current California polls on this Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #101

Funny that you should mention that nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #104

375? Garrett78 Mar 2016 #7

Hell's bells. Thanks for the correction. It is 694 on June 7. Correcting the OP now. morningfog Mar 2016 #9

There is a total of 694 pledged delegates determined on that day. DCBob Mar 2016 #10

I added the wrong column of numbers from a spreadsheet. Corrected now. morningfog Mar 2016 #11

Great. DCBob Mar 2016 #12

You're now qualified to teach economics at Harvard Jim Lane Mar 2016 #15

While it's technically true that one must reach 2383 for the other to be eliminated... Garrett78 Mar 2016 #13

I use only the pledged delegate numbers. 2,026 to win the majority. morningfog Mar 2016 #14

Okay, 2026. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #89

Great to see Oregon's primary men something this year. Thanks Bernie! jalan48 Mar 2016 #16

Superdelagates fun n serious Mar 2016 #17

Whoever wins the most pledged delegates will be the nominee. The supers will support that candidate. morningfog Mar 2016 #19

This message was self-deleted by its author fun n serious Mar 2016 #21

It's not a threat, it is political reality, one that all Democrat leaders understand. morningfog Mar 2016 #23

You think you're okay with losing a generation of voters? Scootaloo Mar 2016 #29

This message was self-deleted by its author fun n serious Mar 2016 #30

So... kenfrequed Mar 2016 #33

I did not say that. nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #36

Ok... kenfrequed Mar 2016 #47

Which is not to say.... daleanime Mar 2016 #48

Democrats losing is in the best interest of you and your family? Scootaloo Mar 2016 #37

Normally no. nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #38

But this time, apparently yes. So. Why? Scootaloo Mar 2016 #40

I rather not say in a place where my freedom of speech is heavily censored. nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #42

Uh huh. Scootaloo Mar 2016 #51

Those are your words not mine nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #53

In fact, they're your own. Scootaloo Mar 2016 #56

I voice my opinion far and wide. NOT here TOS violation. nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #58

completely unsurprising. Scootaloo Mar 2016 #75

You don't think Sanders should run as a democrat? Loudestlib Mar 2016 #24

This message was self-deleted by its author fun n serious Mar 2016 #26

Who the hell cares if Hillary has been a DEM longer? pinebox Mar 2016 #61

I know you love your gif in your sig line passiveporcupine Mar 2016 #77

Note that in 2008 the final primary day was June 3rd, and Clinton ended her campaign PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #18

And it was a wonderful thing she did in 2008, HubertHeaver Mar 2016 #60

I agree. nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #63

He is effectively eliminated the day pledged plus Supers get her there Godhumor Mar 2016 #20

I think he will go to June 7th. fun n serious Mar 2016 #22

I'm sure Sanders appreciates that you're 'ok' with it whatchamacallit Mar 2016 #25

I am speaking of my own opinion so I don't care what Sanders feels. nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #28

And no one whatchamacallit Mar 2016 #55

I think the terms of his exit would be if Hillary reached 2,026 pledged delegates. morningfog Mar 2016 #31

I know. June 7th it is. fun n serious Mar 2016 #34

Jesus, even the DNC is not counting Supers until the Convention nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #50

At that one the narrative completely switches is my point Godhumor Mar 2016 #57

Please do watch this fracking video nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #59

this is why: strange: amborin Mar 2016 #27

Posturing California? fun n serious Mar 2016 #32

yup. at my tiny Maine town caucus, an out of stater spoke for Hillary magical thyme Mar 2016 #35

I lived through them too. I was in my very early 20's fun n serious Mar 2016 #39

Another carpetbagger. You really can't get away with that in our small Maine towns. PWPippin Mar 2016 #64

I shoudl have taken a photo nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #71

many, many Bernie bumper stickers in my area; the first amborin Mar 2016 #76

You are ignoring super delegates Gothmog Mar 2016 #41

Yes, they are irrelevant. THey will not go against the winner of the pledged delegates. morningfog Mar 2016 #45

Why do we have endorsements? nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #52

An endorsement serves a separate purpose than securing the nomination. morningfog Mar 2016 #65

How do you know? fun n serious Mar 2016 #69

Hillary has endorsements because Utopian Leftist Mar 2016 #68

You are wrong Gothmog Mar 2016 #70

Read this fucking story nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #73

I read and I understood it Gothmog Mar 2016 #91

No, you missed it Supers have never been added to the total nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #92

No, you are missed-the premise of this thread is simply false Gothmog Mar 2016 #98

I know people said the same think in 2008 nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #99

Obama had a far smaller lead in delegates and that lead held up Gothmog Mar 2016 #107

Obama had a similar calendar nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #108

The supers have never usurped the pledged delegate winner and they will not this time. morningfog Mar 2016 #78

You are wrong Gothmog Mar 2016 #90

Technically you are correct, well sort off nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #93

When have they? morningfog Mar 2016 #95

Technically Chicago '68 nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #103

The sooner this is over, the better! NurseJackie Mar 2016 #43

June 7 is the earliest it is likely to be over. morningfog Mar 2016 #46

You are wrong Gothmog Mar 2016 #109

Argue with DWS on that fine point nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #110

DWS was not the OP Gothmog Mar 2016 #112

Your premise that the supers should be counted nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #113

Super delegates don't vote until the convention. morningfog Mar 2016 #114

Exactly. We have a nation to fix. Hortensis Mar 2016 #62

And Bernie is just the President to do it!!! Karma13612 Mar 2016 #96

How much would Bernie have to win the remaining by to get to the magic number? firebrand80 Mar 2016 #66

Bernie needs 54% of the remaining pledged delegates. A tough road for sure. morningfog Mar 2016 #67

The question is at what point does it become firebrand80 Mar 2016 #72

We'll know much better after Tuesday. The numbers will change then. morningfog Mar 2016 #80

I expect that as well. nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #82

When the Mets are eliminated from contention in late July, HubertHeaver Mar 2016 #84

bad analogy firebrand80 Mar 2016 #86

It is actually a very good analogy. HubertHeaver Mar 2016 #88

There's also the inconvenient fact that there are more than 700 superdelegates. George II Mar 2016 #79

Yes but it's not disputed Clinton has the advantage by a lot nt fun n serious Mar 2016 #81

It is not inconvenient. It's just not relevant. It is almost certain that neither will reach morningfog Mar 2016 #83

That's not true at all, otherwise Obama would have gotten 100% of the superdelegates in 2008..... George II Mar 2016 #85

It is absolutely true. Obama won the pledged delegate count, but did not have enough to secure. morningfog Mar 2016 #87

Sanders could win more than a handful of the remaining 29 states. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #97

The ones you mention are about it, maybe the Dakotas too. But I can't think of any that he'll win. George II Mar 2016 #102

UT, WA, WI, CT, DE, RI, WV, OR, IN, SD, ND, ID, MT, WY, AK Garrett78 Mar 2016 #105

He won't win in WA, CT, OR, DE, or RI. It may be close in IN, and the remaining states where.... George II Mar 2016 #106

I'm not so sure. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #111