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Response to revbones (Reply #109)

Fri Mar 18, 2016, 10:38 AM

118. I think Clinton is a scandal magnet.

Because she equivocates on everything. I think most of her support base (not on DU, in real life, the people actually voting for her), think she wants the job and is experienced for it, and they don't want to see the Republicans in the White House and think she can win. I also think they want to take a safe bet, and go with someone that they think will continue Obama's policies. Oh, and I do think they see through the equivocation and hope she'll do the "right thing."

While I don't see the electorate being pumped to vote for her, I cannot imagine any scenario where Trump wins. For the simple fact that Trump's core demographic doesn't ever vote Democrat anyway. Romney (2012, no Obama honeymoon with the youth vote) won a staggering 62% share of that demographic. And still lost. It's because minorities are growing and their voice is increasingly being heard.

What is unfortunate for me is that I went into this thinking Sanders could win, maybe, if he got out the youth vote. But he would have to do it by larger margins than Obama did in 2008. But the turnout rates have been mediocre at best, 10 points lower than 2008. Sanders has tied Clinton in many races, in many cases the youth vote broke for Sanders by 80%. That just tells you how important turnout is, and Sanders himself says it.

If the same youth don't vote or whatever I'm not worried because Trump has a massive millennial problem that he cannot overcome and it will likely get worse as the nastiness of the race heats up. I think if anything the way the race will go (very bigoted, very sexist, very racist), the youth vote will break for Clinton in a surprising way.

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