2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Hey DNC, we are big enough to be a third party... [View all]basselope
(2,565 posts)Right now both Clinton and Trump are doing the same thing... saying WHATEVER it is they have to say in order to win their primary.
BOTH, believing they have sealed up their nomination have begun their tack to the center. Clinton with her deplorable speech at AIPAC, Trump with his greater focus on being anti-free trade agreements and against the Iraq War vote, not having a Super-Pac, etc.
It is a LONG way until November, and rhetoric said during primaries is pretty quickly forgotten... so Trump has the ability to completely reinvent himself during the next 6-7 months. Clinton; however, is already defined. She has a very difficult record to run away from.
You've already seen glimmers of how Trump handles this stuff and it just rolls off him. When the GOP tries to attack his hypocrisy on outsourcing his answer. "Well, I'm was a businessman and as a businessman, I had to do everything possible to maximize my profits, so OF COURSE I took advantage of the free trade agreements." And most people nod their heads and say.. "yeah, makes sense". So in a general election, his rhetoric will soften, he will still blame many of our problems on illegal immigrants, but the message will be softer, praising the "good ones". When people point out the softening of his rhetoric, he will simply explain the difference between winning a primary and the general election and people will nod their heads and say... "yeah, makes sense".
With 76% of the country thinking we are on the WRONG TRACK, people are desperate for the "system" to be shaken up. This is why Obama bled 10MM votes from 2008 to 2012. Luckily for him the GOP bled 3MM or he would have lost... but the trend is clear from 2010 and 2014. When given a chance to "Shake things up".. THOSE people turn out. When voting for business as usual.. those people stay home.
Right now there are far too many honestly trying to decide between Bernie and Trump b/c they are close on the big issues that are important to them.. Free Trade agreements, Super Pacs and a corrupt political system and the Iraq War. But either way, Bernie and Trump represent the SHAKE IT UP vote... the vote that will ACTUALLY change things. Everything they THOUGHT they were getting in 2008, but turned out to be just another center right politician.
So the game... is Trump will be choosing Kasich as his VP to keep the establishment happy and if you think Kasich won't accept, just think about Reagan/Bush and how bush had to change from being pro-life to pro-choice and give up on the entire concept of that "Voodoo economics" thing to unite the party. With Kasich as his VP.. Trump will suddenly seem plausible.. not as frightening, but will still represent the best chance we have a major political shakeup, which is what the MAJORITY of people want.
Clinton will choose Castro in some desperate attempt to win a demographic they are already going to win from a state she has no chance of competing in.
GOP turnout will be motivated by the Trump fanatics and the compromise he made choosing Kasich. Democratic turnout will be depressed even further than 2012 by the lackluster candidate.
Trump will easily win Ohio and Florida and from there it will be President Trump.
I have NEVER in 30+ years of watching and studying politics gotten a presidential election prediction wrong and this one is the easiest to see of all.