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quaker bill

(8,223 posts)
29. I do not know what you have been reading
Sat Oct 20, 2012, 06:28 AM
Oct 2012

But I have been seeing numbers in the range of a turn of 37 to 49 seats, moving fairly independent of the top line. The dynamic in the Senate with the primaries picking far right candidates actually played far bigger in the House races, but mostly undercover because the MSM does not follow it. In quite a number of cases the dem ran unopposed and spent a few bucks before the R primary calling the tea party wackaloon they wanted to run against "too conservative" compared to his/her opponent. (basically a back handed campaign ad for them). In many cases it worked, and the dems got the opponent they wanted.

You can see the independence of movement here in the Senate analysis on 538 and elsewhere. Polls have tightened around the Presidential race while at the same time widening for the Senate.

The proposition I am making here is that just perhaps, at the critical moment, they intentionaly allowed the Presidential race to seem a bit closer than it ever really was, to keep the money focused on the top of the ticket, where they can spend an easy 100 million on negative ads and not move the polls because there is no concious person who has not heard a negative message about BHO perhaps 100 times already and kicking it up to 110 times will make no difference. On the other hand, busting that 100 million up into 2 million dollar slices could turn a number of House seats around. I think they think like that, I could be wrong.

The polls seem surreal when Mitt is up. RichGirl Oct 2012 #1
Robme's supporters have also been fed four years of lies which they believe without question LonePirate Oct 2012 #8
My...what an astute observation. jaysunb Oct 2012 #9
I have A LOT of republican friends Cosmocat Oct 2012 #23
I stop bothering a month before the election Warpy Oct 2012 #2
Smart. A lot of it is mental. liberalmuse Oct 2012 #27
Oh, it's surreal to me, too. I feel like I'm on Stupid Planet. And then I realize all over again the Nay Oct 2012 #3
Obama's re-election will go some way to solving it. Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #16
YES! cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #4
The base cratered, the media sealed the narrative Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #5
I am so understanding your OP! I am a bundle of nerves, even though i am canvassing and Ninga Oct 2012 #6
for better or worse, I guess I am letting both my open book and bleeding heart show! NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #7
YES. Either someone is jacking with the numbers ProfessionalLeftist Oct 2012 #10
The supposed "liberal" MSM did this - Horse race - Also, some guys like tough guys DHelix Oct 2012 #11
Great, points all - thanks for this thoughtful response to my OP. NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #12
polls suggest Obama leading politicman Oct 2012 #13
Keep in mind "tied" in a national poll means exactly nothing. jeff47 Oct 2012 #14
It isn't the value of the polls on a given day - it is how the rolling average moves over time. NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #15
Actually, Nate talks about this today jeff47 Oct 2012 #22
This message was self-deleted by its author GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #17
Yes, things are weird. GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #18
"are there that many Americans with their heads up their ass?" Prophet 451 Oct 2012 #19
It does but quaker bill Oct 2012 #20
The house is a LONG shot Cosmocat Oct 2012 #24
I do not know what you have been reading quaker bill Oct 2012 #29
Believe me Cosmocat Oct 2012 #30
It will be tough for sure quaker bill Oct 2012 #31
i think they had a shot Cosmocat Oct 2012 #33
While there is some correlation quaker bill Oct 2012 #35
yeah Cosmocat Oct 2012 #39
It's just more egregious. bemildred Oct 2012 #21
actually, the state of voter education is surreal wordpix Oct 2012 #25
Worries me in that they can be used as a way to make election theft possible rurallib Oct 2012 #26
really, it should just not, not be this close Flashmann Oct 2012 #28
Intellectually it shouldn't, but i get it Cosmocat Oct 2012 #32
Not really... tallahasseedem Oct 2012 #34
Yes, and so does this entire election season lunatica Oct 2012 #36
I'll let George Carlin explain... RedSpartan Oct 2012 #37
Yes, but buckyblue Oct 2012 #38
My 89 y.o. Mother-in-law Marthe48 Oct 2012 #40
Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter. Most don't pay any attention to neverforget Oct 2012 #41
Hopefully those are the ones who will stay home. LisaL Oct 2012 #42
head up asses monkeyofstick Oct 2012 #43
FWIW, the correct term is heebie jeebies, unless you are looking to be offensive. uppityperson Oct 2012 #44
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