2016 Postmortem

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)

37. Because there are 30+ states where Obama never ran any substantial advertising and

Sun Oct 21, 2012, 12:05 PM

Oct 2012

never did a campaign event. Those states will poll 5-10% higher for Romney than they otherwise would, and that is inflating the national numbers. But it doesn't matter. If Obama concedes a state, it doesn't matter whether he loses by one vote or 1 million.

The only thing that matters is the swing state polling, and that is pretty solid right now. Could be better in VA and FL, but it is good enough to win.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

45 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

NBC poll [View all] BelieveMe3 Oct 2012 OP

They had Obama by +3 but it was in late September, before the first debate. Mass Oct 2012 #1

momentum is the most important thing mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #6

If you believe so... Mass Oct 2012 #8

Actually, ProSense Oct 2012 #10

Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input./nt DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #36

they've changed their model.. nt progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #42

Exactly, this ProSense Oct 2012 #7

We will win a tie. Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #2

Why do you think we will win a tie? helpisontheway Oct 2012 #20

Because there are 30+ states where Obama never ran any substantial advertising and BlueStreak Oct 2012 #37

That's loser talk Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #45

Obama leads by 5 among registered voters in the poll 49-44 7worldtrade Oct 2012 #3

I've been canvassing people who would never pass a likely voter screening BainsBane Oct 2012 #5

Getting O T Vote! Thank you! bettyellen Oct 2012 #34

so much for good news today. mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #4

So much for your constant negative trolling VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #13

You noticed that too, eh? 68 Rex Oct 2012 #24

Nationwide polls don't mean Shit 68 Rex Oct 2012 #9

As do the kooky LV models Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #11

LV model adding noise, RV relatively stable 20895DEM Oct 2012 #12

Thank you! the voice of reason. Likely voter is confusing people here... progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #41

just got done reading most of the responses in this thread WI_DEM Oct 2012 #14

RCP BelieveMe3 Oct 2012 #15

FYI: RCP is ProSense Oct 2012 #17

RCP is a right wing site. Jennicut Oct 2012 #28

RCP is mostly right-winged. SAVE yourself time and don't go there LenaBaby61 Oct 2012 #30

RCP is a TOTAL right wing site. Everyone has posted the comments from the head of it, repeatedly.. progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #40

What is the deal with Gallop that keeps giving Rodney a 6-7 point lead, that one worries me n/t doc03 Oct 2012 #16

Why is it bothering you if that helpisontheway Oct 2012 #18

I don't remember ever bringing the subject up before so how am I always focusing doc03 Oct 2012 #22

From what I have read helpisontheway Oct 2012 #23

It's Gallup. And no. Survey USA, Quinnipiac and YouGov Jennicut Oct 2012 #29

NBC News Tweet in 04 on this very date Bush/Kerry were tied 48-48 WI_DEM Oct 2012 #19

What was RV in that poll? Nt helpisontheway Oct 2012 #21

Bush was ahead +2 in RV in that poll. writes3000 Oct 2012 #31

LOL! ProSense Oct 2012 #43

That was a good question, and ProSense Oct 2012 #44

Saddens me how stupid half of Americans can be Impious Oct 2012 #25

SADLY, maybe a quarter of more of thos 50% of voters are racist.... LenaBaby61 Oct 2012 #32

Wowzers. I think this is exactly where the race is. Not sure why people are freaking out. Jennicut Oct 2012 #26

Hello,troll. MjolnirTime Oct 2012 #27

From Princeton Election Consortium, 10/21/2012 at 8:00 a.m. pfeiffer Oct 2012 #33

This!! Yes. Finally someone gets it. The State polls are the only thing that matters now. progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #39

Obama has a large lead in early Iowa voting. Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #35

Who cares?? A national poll doesn't mean jack shit. And is oversampling "likely voters" progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #38